The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the potential for sustained tariffs have already begun to erode business confidence in Ontario. 

A survey conducted in February by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) has revealed that more than 80% of businesses believe U.S. tariffs are clearly impacting confidence in Ontario’s economy. 

Coupled with the results of the OCC’s 2025 Ontario Economic Report released last month which revealed that business confidence had risen from a historic low of 13% to only 26% in 2024, Canada’s economy remains in a precarious position in wake of U.S President Donald Trump’s continued tariffs attacks.

“The problem is we have Trump, a 78-year-old man trying to run a country in the same manner as it would have been run in 1968,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher. “But that country doesn’t exist anymore.”

He notes Trump’s continued claim that NATFA (North American Free Trade Agreement) resulted in the closure of 90,000 plants and factories in the U.S. is an exaggeration as well as touting that introducing exorbitant tariffs will eliminate the need for income tax.

Many industries at risk

“It’s literally impossible for that to happen,” says Greg, adding revenue from tariffs would equate to about 2% of the U.S. budget. “His whole end game centres on minerals, considering all he talks about is titanium and lithium from Ukraine. There’s no question about it.”

But in the wake of this pursuit, experts agree the impact of sustained tariffs will hit Canada hard.

The manufacturing sector stands at the forefront of potential adverse effects due to its substantial contribution to Ontario's economy and its heavy reliance on U.S. markets.

The automotive industry, a cornerstone of Ontario's manufacturing base, is especially vulnerable. Tariffs could render Canadian auto parts and vehicles less competitive, leading U.S. companies to seek alternative suppliers. This shift threatens to result in decreased production, layoffs, and a contraction within the sector. 

Beyond automotive manufacturing, other industries such as steel and aluminum production are also at risk. 

In retaliation to the U.S. tariffs, the federal government has already announced a $155 billion tariff package targeting various U.S. goods. The first phase included 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports, confirmed March 4, encompassing products like orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper.

An additional list targeting $125 billion worth of U.S. goods is under consideration on products such as electric vehicles, trucks and buses, certain fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, and dairy. 

Businesses ready to adapt

While these countermeasures aim to protect Canadian interests, they also risk escalating trade tensions, potentially leading to a trade war that could further destabilize Ontario's economy.

The results of the OCC tariffs survey reflect these concerns considering 77% of the 600 respondents said they expect U.S. tariffs will negatively impact their business, while slightly fewer (74%) believe that Canadian tariffs will have a negative impact.

However, when it comes to adapting to U.S. tariffs, approximately half (52%) of the respondents remain confident in their businesses ability to do so, something that doesn’t surprise Greg.

“When Canadian entrepreneurs are pushed, they become very structured and organized and say if our only option is to branch out and look elsewhere, then we're prepared to do that,” he says, adding having 52% of business owners prepared to seek other opportunities and avenues is a positive sign. “It just demonstrates that the structure of the businesses in Canada are probably more resilient than they are anywhere else, even compared to businesses in the U.S. They’re not relying on Donald Trump when it comes to changing his mind, they're relying more on themselves.”

Key findings of the OCC tariffs survey

The OCC conducted an online survey from Feb. 7-23 in co-ordination with local Chambers and Boards of Trade

Business confidence

• 60% of respondents do not currently feel confident in Ontario’s economic outlook, with nearly a quarter indicating they are not at all confident (24%).
• 88% of respondents indicated the U.S. tariffs are negatively impacting Ontario’s economy. In fact, 51% said that U.S. tariffs will have a significant negative impact on their confidence in the province’s economy.

 Business impacts of U.S. tariffs

• 77% expect U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods will negatively impact their businesses, while 74% expect Canadian tariffs will also be negative for them.
• 26% are expecting decreases sales/revenue and/or increased costs, while 23% expect increased costs of raw materials.  About 21% expect changes in customer demand because of tariffs.

 Adapting business to U.S. tariffs

• 52% of responding businesses are confident they can adapt with ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.
• 35% of businesses say they are diversifying their suppliers or considering it while 24% are considering a price increase. Approximately 84% said they are not looking to relocate any part of their business operations due to U.S. tariffs.
• 36% of respondents are anticipating a shift in market focus, while 31% expect innovations in products/services in their industry.
• 48% of respondents would welcome information and guidance, or advocacy when it comes to dealing with U.S. tariffs, while 41% would welcome financial assistance.

Click here to read survey results.

The impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian imports and Canada’s counter tariffs has significant implications for various sectors of our economy, including tourism, with Ontario poised to experience both direct and indirect effects on this industry.

The Canada-U.S. border has traditionally seen substantial movement of tourists in both directions. However, these escalating trade tensions have led to a surge in nationalistic sentiments, influencing travel decisions.  Reports have indicated that many Canadians plan to boycott travel to the U.S. in response to Trump’s tariffs, opting instead for domestic destinations or alternative international locations, a trend that has not gone unnoticed by tourism experts. 

“We're hearing that 40% of Canadians that had booked a trip to the U.S. have cancelled their plans,” says Explore Waterloo Region CEO Michele Saran, noting travel destinations nationwide are expecting an uptick in tourists this summer. “If I was a Canadian destination that actively pursued the U.S. market, right now I would be pushing the exchange rate really hard.”

Potential side-effects

However, economic downturns typically result in reduced disposable income, which can lead to a decline in domestic tourism as residents may cut back on travel and leisure activities.

Moreover, the weakening of the Canadian dollar is likely to make international travel more expensive for Canadians, potentially reducing outbound tourism. But on the flipside, a weaker Canadian dollar could make Canada a more attractive destination for foreign tourists, as their currencies would have greater purchasing power. 

There are also potential side-effects surrounding the impact heightened political tensions and changes in consumer sentiment that have been created.

“I have been told that Americans are expressing concern about how they'll be treated if they come to Canada right now,” says Michele. “So, they're a little bit reticent about it right now. But from a leisure travel perspective, Waterloo Region has always focused on marketing in Southern Ontario.”

In fact, she says the travel organization is in the process of creating and promoting new packages to encourage visitors to spend more time here once they arrive.

Specific marketing

“We want to provide them with options they can’t find in downtown Toronto,” she says of this new promotional tactic. “We're giving them an itinerary so that they'll be able to create a mental movie of a staycation in Waterloo Region and how they could spend their time here.”

Michele says Explore Waterloo Region is conducting specific marketing targeted at couples, families and groups of friends highlighting the authentic ‘experiences’ that cities located on the edge of nature can offer. 

“We're testing them right now at the target market to make sure we mitigate any risk to make sure that these markets find them compelling,” she says, noting Waterloo Region’s proximity to the GTA will likely prove to be an even bigger advantage this year.  “About 90% of our leisure visitors come from that area. It’s easy to get here and we also have we have both rural and urban, so there's something for everyone when you come to the region.”

Annually, Waterloo Region attracts approximately five million visitors not just for leisure visits, but conferences, meetings, and sporting events, which translates into nearly $560 million for the local economy. 

To learn more, visit Explore Waterloo Region.

Tourism stats:

• Canada is the biggest source of international visitors to the U.S. accounting for for 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs. 
• According to the U.S. Travel Association, even 10% less Canadian tourists to the U.S. could mean 14,000 job losses in related industries in that sector and two million less visitors.
• Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas are the top states Canadians visit. Since shopping is a popular activity for Canadian visitors, these states could see steep declines in retail and hospitality revenue.
• Ontario’s Highlands Tourism Organization (OHTO) recently revealed that visitors are increasingly seeking meaningful experiences that allow them to reconnect with friends, family, and nature. This trend is reflected in a noticeable shift in spending patterns; between January and September 2024, visitor spending reached $399 million, marking a 12% increase over the previous year.
• In January 2025, more than $1.4 million was allocated to 10 organizations across southern Ontario federal government. Notable projects include the creation of a looped trail connecting Burlington to the Niagara Escarpment trail network and the Bruce Trail, aimed at augmenting active outdoor visitor experiences. Additionally, enhancements to were announced for the Hydrocut mountain bike trails in the Waterloo Region.

The high cost of living, inflation, housing affordability, and rising operational costs top the lists of concerns for Ontario businesses, according to the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s (OCC) most recent Ontario Economic Report (OER). 

The report shows a significant rise in business confidence over the course of 2024, climbing from a historic low of 13% to 26% by year’s end. Despite this improvement, confidence remains historically low and fragile, with 48% of businesses expressing a lack of confidence in the economy. Affordability and the cost of living continue to be the most pressing concerns for businesses.

The survey, conducted between October 15 and December 2, 2024, gathered insights from 1,714 respondents representing a diverse range of industries, regions, and organizations.

The results show that when U.S. tariff threats are on the table, business confidence drops dramatically to just 15%, almost erasing the last year’s gains, according to the OCC’s separate tariff survey in early February. This recent research also shows that with tariffs in play, six in ten (60%) business decision makers would lack confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook.

“I may not use the word fragile describing the confidence level and instead use the word tempered,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher. “People's optimism for the future of business in the short term is tempered by the impact of Trump’s tariffs. I think most people in business realize that the impact of any decision is probably going to be short term. Whether or not tariffs are long term isn't the issue, it’s the impact of tariffs. So, after a period time, the marketplace settles down and people get used to whatever is the new reality.”

Ontario’s economic outlook varies

Confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook varies significantly across industries, with the information and cultural industries sector reporting the lowest level of optimism at just 17%.  Businesses in this sector cite high operational costs, shifting consumer behaviour, declining advertising revenues, and mounting pressures from technological disruption, global competition, and regulatory challenges as key drivers of their pessimism.

The retail (18%), non-profit (20%), utilities (21%), and accommodation and food services (22%) sectors follow closely, reflecting the impact of declining consumer spending amid heightened cost-of-living pressures.

The agriculture sector, while showing a slight improvement over last year, also remains among the least confident sectors (22%). Concerns in this sector centre on extreme weather events, trade and supply chain barriers, and growing labour gaps and succession planning challenges as a significant portion of the workforce approaches retirement.

By contrast, confidence is strongest in the mining (56%), finance and insurance (40%), and administrative and waste management services (40%) sectors. This could be explained by the strong demand for critical minerals supported by Ontario’s Critical Minerals Strategy, rising sustainability initiatives the finance sector’s ongoing resilience, and growth driven by fintech advancements. These sectors demonstrate adaptability and the ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Survey respondents remain optimistic

Regionally, most of Ontario’s regions outside the GTA saw a significant reduction in confidence compared to the previous year.

Confidence is lowest in Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (19%), Northeast Ontario (21%), and the Greater Ottawa Area (21%), where in addition to concerns surrounding high costs and housing affordability, businesses are disproportionately sensitive to government policies and investments and have suffered more extreme weather events than other regions.

Confidence is highest in the Greater London Area (34%), a significant rebound from last year (9%). This resurgence is likely fueled by strong consumer demand, and domestic manufacturing capacity and supply chains, including the announcement of the Volkswagen EV battery plant in St. Thomas.

Despite the challenges, respondents report relative optimism about their own business growth prospects. Nearly half (49%) express confidence in their own future, citing factors such as strong consumer demand, innovation, and improved inflation management, something that doesn’t surprise Greg.

“I think that you'll find that there's going to be a growth and optimism because many sectors in Canada are going to strengthen as a result,” he says. “We’ve never been the ‘buy Canadian’ kind of a nation and the U.S. has always had buy American programs in place because we’ve always understood we were a player in the global market.”

He says there are initiatives created by the Provincial and Federal governments to encourage Canadian businesses to look at other, more reliable markets, rather than depending on the American market.

European Union agreement key

“Why we perceive the U.S. market to be unreliable right now is because anything that the American government does that impacts the trade with their nation is exponential in our case because 80 per cent of our GDP goes to the United States,” says Greg. “So, we're vulnerable to every whim of the U.S. government. For us to get more reliable sources, we need to diversify so we need to have relationships in the European Union.”

He notes the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which Canada signed in the fall of 2016, has been underutilized. 

“I think it stands to reason that we have not served ourselves well by not really looking seriously at the European Union for economic trade,” says Greg, noting this happened primarily because of our expectation the U.S. would always remain a reliable trading partner.

“We need to understand what the reality of this is going to be going forward and whether we do get aggressive when it comes to find other trading partners.  And if Canadians continue to buy Canadian that will really impact the U.S. exponentially because we do consume a lot of American products.”

Click here to read the report.

Report highlights: 

• Business confidence in Ontario’s economy has doubled in the past year, rising from 13% to 26%, but a majority of respondents (48%) lack confidence in the economy. 
• High costs remain the top concern for businesses, with 78% citing the cost of living, followed by inflation (62%), housing affordability (57%), and rising operational costs (51%).
• Simplifying or reducing business taxes (42%) is the most frequently cited policy solution to improve economic conditions, followed by affordable housing (32%), health system capacity (30%) and workforce development to solve labour shortages (29%).
• While businesses recognize the economic importance of technology adoption, environmental sustainability, diversity and inclusion and Indigenous reconciliation, businesses report a need for support and guidance in seizing these opportunities.
• Businesses report being ill-equipped to support workers and communities through mental health and addictions challenges. For example, while 71% of businesses recognize the importance of mental health and well-being to their success, only 41% have formal mental health strategies.
• Business leaders are confident in their ability to adapt to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada with nearly half (48%) reporting confidence, while 32% are neutral and only 15% expressing a lack of confidence. 
• Ontario’s post-pandemic recovery faces significant headwinds, including potential U.S. tariff threats, geopolitical instability, lagging productivity, affordability challenges, and rising unemployment.

While the recent 30-day postponement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures came as welcomed news to businesses, the lingering presence of these threats remain prompting the Chamber network to act using a variety of tactics, including advocacy, negotiation, education and promoting partnerships.

Trump’s demand for 25 per cent blanket tariffs on all Canadian goods, with the exception of a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy, and Canada’s proposed retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods, has sent economic shockwaves through both nations prompting calls for action on both sides of the border.

To clearly map out the vital importance of the trading relationship between the two countries and the risks businesses face, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab has introduced the Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker —a new tool designed to illustrate the ties between the two economies. It notes that $3.6 billion in goods crosses the Canada-U.S. border daily, generating a $1.3 trillion annual trade relationship.

"A 30-day delay means more time for Canadian businesses and governments to drive home the point that tariffs make no sense between the two closest allies the world has ever known,” said Candace Laing, President and CEO, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “The Canadian Chamber, our network and businesses across the country will spend every day of it fighting hard to secure this historic, robust trading relationship. Raising the cost of living for Americans and Canadians with these taxes is the wrong move. Canada and the U.S. make things together, and we should in fact be building on that.”

Call to dismantle interprovincial trade barriers

It is a sentiment echoed by her colleagues at the Ontario Chamber of Commerce who have rallied their members, which includes the Cambridge Chamber, in a show of unity and strength and targeted actions including supporting a unified call for Canadian premiers to quickly dismantle interprovincial trade barriers and the creation of a business and trade leadership coalition.

Called the Ontario Business & Trade Leadership Coalition (OBTLC), it aims to unit leaders from key trade-dependent sectors to champion business-driven solutions, advocate for effective government policies, and solidify Ontario’s position as a global leader in trade.

“President Trump has claimed the U.S. doesn’t need Canada – but we are here to show just how invaluable we are. Ontario businesses are stepping up to safeguard our economy and reinforce our global competitiveness,” said Daniel Tisch, President and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “The Ontario Business & Trade Leadership Coalition represents a united response – a coalition of industry leaders committed to resilience, collaboration, and growth.”

BestWR brings business groups together

But the fight to ward off economic turmoil caused by these tariff threats has also been ramped up locally, says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher, through the revival of a unique partnership created during the pandemic to assist businesses.

“We created the Business Economic Support Team of Waterloo Region (BestWR) during COIVD-19 consisting of organizations that are fundamentally engaged in the economic activities through business in the region and have brought it back as a support mechanism for local businesses with respect to trade,” he explains. “It was created during the pandemic, but this is now really about a united force of business organizations helping local businesses navigate these turbulent trade waters.”

Besides the Cambridge and Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chambers, BestWR also includes Waterloo EDC, Communitech and Explore Waterloo Region.

“We are engaged right now with regional municipalities to create opportunities whereby we can offer a support role in helping local businesses find local or Canadian suppliers, or to expose local businesses to the products they currently manufacture or sell and may be able to find Canadian customers for,” says Greg, noting BestWR also has strong federal and provincial connections which they will use to assist businesses.

“We have the insight to be able to tap into key levers within provincial government and within the federal government to have input on what potential supports those governments may need to provide businesses to keep them moving through this turmoil.”

Ask the Expert returns

As a further measure to assist, both the Cambridge and KW Chambers have revived their online tool 'Ask the Expert'.

These weekly Zoom calls - created during the pandemic to provide business leaders with current information – will now provide an opportunity for manufacturers and businesses in the region who export to the U.S. to ask questions.

“We will invite various experts to take part in the one-hour call, and hopefully get some answers to their questions and help them keep their business humming along and doing the things they need to do to support their employees,” says Greg.

'Ask the Expert' will take place every Thursday, between 9-10 a.m.

“This all about businesses,” he says. “And how do we navigate the turbulent challenges ahead and make it a win for Canadian businesses.”

The Chambers have also revamped the chambercheck website (which offered timely resources for businesses during the pandemic) to provide a growing list of trade-related resources to inform and assist businesses.

Reasons for businesses to remain confident and optimistic:

Economic Resilience

Canadian businesses have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of past economic challenges. Our diverse economy and strong trade relationships beyond the United States provide a buffer against potential disruptions.

United Response

The Canadian government, provincial leaders, and business organizations like your local Chamber of Commerce are presenting a united front in response to this threat. This co-ordinated approach strengthens our negotiating position and demonstrates our commitment to protecting Canadian interests.

Potential for Internal Growth

For years the Chamber network has been encouraging the government of Canada to remove interprovincial trade barriers and unlock the economic prosperity lying dormant in these archaic policies. This situation presents an opportunity to address long-standing interprovincial trade barriers and by removing them boost Canada's economy by up to $200 billion per year, potentially offsetting the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Mutual Economic Interests

It's important to remember that the proposed tariffs would also significantly harm the U.S. economy. American businesses and consumers would face higher costs and reduced competitiveness, which could lead to pressure on the U.S. administration to reconsider this approach. 

Time for Preparation

With the proposed tariffs not set to take effect until at least March 1, there is time for diplomatic efforts and for businesses to prepare contingency plans as we work our business contacts and channels to influence key stakeholders in the U.S.

Leveraging Canadian Assets

Canada continues to highlight its valuable assets that are strategically important to the U.S., including:

• Energy resources
• Critical minerals
• Nuclear power capabilities
• AI research excellence
• Lumber and building materials
• Automotive
• Agriculture

By emphasizing these assets, Canada is demonstrating that doing business with us is not just beneficial but strategically smarter than alternatives.

Government Support

The Canadian government has a track record of supporting businesses during trade disputes. We can expect measures to be put in place to assist affected industries if the tariffs are implemented.

The following column by Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher appears in the winter edition of our INSIGHT Magazine

There’s a chance we might be panicking over nothing after Donald Trump was again elected this past fall as President of the United States, defying political norms in a way few others have.

Despite being a convicted felon—yes, by a jury of his peers, not a partisan judge—Trump secured his return to the highest office in the land, with a staggering 34 convictions under his belt. His campaign rhetoric was, as always, polarizing and often crossed the line of decency. 

Politics has clearly changed since there was a time when even a fraction of Trump's controversies would have ended a political career. Yet here we are. Some Canadians celebrated his victory, but it perplexes me why anyone north of the border would since he has demonstrated little regard for Canada, dismissing us as an afterthought despite our deep economic ties.

The truth is America’s prosperity is intrinsically linked to our resources and partnership.

Canada: An Indispensable Ally

Consider this: 60% of the crude oil the U.S. consumes comes from Canada. Saskatchewan supplies uranium, which is essential for energy production and national security, and potash essential for the agriculture industry. Quebec powers the northeastern United States with hydroelectricity. Alberta’s natural gas and Canada’s aluminum and steel exports are cornerstones of U.S. infrastructure.

But what would happen if we turned off the taps? A trade war would hurt us both, but Canada’s contribution to the U.S. economy is undeniable. Trump’s focus should be on challenges like China and Russia, not antagonizing U.S. allies.

Revisiting NAFTA and Trade Tactics

However, his threats are nothing new since we’ve seen this playbook before. In 2016, Trump declared NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) dead, demanding a "fair deal." After much posturing, the agreement was merely updated—something long overdue. Trump called it a victory, and his supporters cheered him on, but the changes were only modest at best.

Similarly, his famous promise to build a wall funded by Mexico resulted in just 732 km of construction—most of which replaced existing barriers. Mexico, of course, didn’t pay a dime and some of the "new" wall even deteriorated quickly, bogged down by allegations of corruption among Trump’s staff.

The Reality of Trump’s First Term

Let’s be honest—Trump’s first term was marked by unfulfilled promises and many controversies. His pandemic response was completely disastrous, with state governors openly criticizing his lack of leadership. Who could forget his infamous suggestion to inject bleach as a COVID-19 treatment? Why would a person even suggest that? Trump signed agreements that drove up gas prices, contributing to inflation.

Running a country is vastly different from running a private business, and Trump’s approach often revealed his lack of governance expertise.

What’s Next?

His 25% tariff plan threat on Canadian goods are likely bluster—an opening gambit to pressure Canada and Mexico into renegotiating trade agreements. It really is a strategy very reminiscent of his NAFTA theatrics.

In the end, we’ll likely see a slightly revised deal that Trump will tout as another one of his "wins." Of course, his base will applaud, despite little substantial change.

Canada’s Challenge

For Canadians, Trump’s presidency is very concerning since his leadership style— always chaotic and self-serving—offers no real benefit to Canada. Therefore, we must brace ourselves for uncertainty and prepare to protect our interests.

Meanwhile, south of the border, Americans will face the consequences of his polarizing and often ineffective leadership.

In the end, Trump’s bravado may have won temporary support from his base, but we must remember it’s critical to separate rhetoric from results. As the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for—you just might get it.”

The following column by Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher appears in the fall edition of our INSIGHT Magazine

I’m not sure you are with me on this, but I am perplexed and concerned about the anger and vitriol commentary coming from not only politicians, but more so these days from the voting public. 

I recall the early days of the environmental movement and the efforts made to get politicians to believe it should be a concern for everyone, especially now considering the mild winters we’ve been experiencing.  Many blamed politicians for not acting fast enough. However, in all fairness to them, it was the voters who put “climate” further down the list of priorities of what they wanted their government to do for them.

However, it did ignite the creation of the Green Party, and while their optimism and frustration often appeared to be on high volume, back then there wasn’t much name calling, lying, fabricating and conspiracy theories surrounding this issue.

In the 1980s, the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was the big issue, and the Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Mulroney won a majority government by making it the focus of the campaign. However, while the Liberals, led by John Turner, and the NDP, led by Ed Broadbent, vigorously campaigned hard against the FTA, there were no stones being thrown, literally or figuratively. 

Today, every social media stream is filled with vitriol commentary aimed not at the ideas, but rather at the people behind them. There appears to be a feeling that we need to beat people down because it’s believed this is the only way to get them to change their minds, or the only way we can convince others to think the same way. 

While Canada’s national election campaign hasn’t started (officially), we’ve seen this scenario play out in the United States’ election race as actual policies have taken a backseat to insults and taunts. 

Democratic process remains

What has changed in politics? Certainly not the process since we live in a democracy that provides us with the opportunity to make, hopefully, an informed a choice every four years after following election campaigns covered by the media. 

Sure, there are some mainstream media (MSM) outlets that have a bias, some more noteworthy than others, but at the core there are facts being reported. Sure, they edit and can pick out the worst of the worst, but it’s not like they are reporting things that didn’t occur.

I remember when John Tory, while vying to be Ontario Premier, supported universal government funding for all schools. Frankly, that wasn’t the whole story, but nonetheless, the MSM reported it and he fell off the cliff in terms of support.

Communication is important and can derail or rev up a campaign.

But today’s election campaigns have turned on the MSM, calling them “fake news”, calling out their reporters, vilifying the industry in favour of… you guessed it, their own made-up reporting on social media. 

Right after the 2015 federal election where Prime Minister Justin Trudeau moved from third place to first place with a majority government, The Globe and Mail published a story stating that former PM Stephen Harper was the most bullied politician in Canadian history. Today, he wouldn’t even be in the top 1,000 and comparatively got off easy because Facebook and X (formerly Twitter) weren’t in the public domain until after he was elected. 

It took a few years for people to understand how easy it was to hide behind a keyboard and say anything they liked.

Social media posts creating chaos

Don’t get me wrong, I love seeing photos online of family and friends living their lives, but there seem to be less of that compared to all the other trash which seems to fill our social media feeds. Someone really needs to figure out how many posts are valid compared to the amount which are strictly someone’s opinion or false. 

I read a tweet recently by someone with 1.2 million followers, a supporter of former U.S. President Donald Trump, who posted that VP Kamala Harris was not eligible to run for President because she wasn’t born in the U.S. Well, despite that some Republicans don’t want to believe California is even in the U.S., she was in fact born in Oakland, CA.

But the problem is, potentially 1.2 million followers of this person may now believe that tweet. I also read a post where a U.S. senator has promised that if the Republicans win the Senate, he is going to reopen the case on former U.S. President Barack Obama’s birth certificate. 

Stupid posts like these create the chaos we are experiencing and now that the horse is out of the barn, there is no putting it back in.  If the executives of these social media giants get a kick out of the chaos they’ve created, they will never do anything to clean it up. Elon Musk has been using his social media platform ‘X’ to campaign for Trump and when he comes across conspiracy commentary, he generally hasn’t rebuked it, instead he retweets it with a “I wonder” attached. 

Is it any wonder that we are having difficulty finding good candidates these days? Who wants to be the target of some tyrannical rage of baseless unvetted information? 

Ignore conspiracy theorists

I have had my battles with the MSM in the past, but I’ll take them over any social media feed because at least there are guidelines and rules they must follow. On social media, it seems the more outrageous the better and it’s bound to only get worse since many major MSM outlets continue to restructure resulting in layoffs.

The light at the end of the tunnel appears to be growing even more dim for many mainstream media outlets. But I leave you with a very important question: Where will you get the REAL news when the MSM disappears? Will it be X or Facebook, Instagram, or even TikTok? 

I think we all need to understand that what we see today is minor compared to what we will see just a few years down the road. 

The next time we go to the polls, maybe, just maybe try to ignore the conspiracy theorists and crazies and instead read a newspaper (print or online) or listen to the radio - preferably 570 News Radio at noon on Sunday - or watch your favourite newscast on TV because you might just learn something factual about the candidates and their policies.

Never in the history of trade negotiations have we seen a country’s largest, most important business  association openly call its government’s trade proposals “dangerous” and say they should be withdrawn. That is exactly what the U.S. Chamber of  Commerce did yesterday.

Canada’s negotiators have done their very best in a challenging environment. They have reached out to Canadian people and business, they have extended a warm hand of friendship to their U.S. and Mexican counterparts and they have tabled sensible, generous proposals to improve NAFTA. But, we all have to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will withdraw from NAFTA, based on the poisonous proposals U.S. negotiators have presented.

The craziest is a sunset clause that would terminate NAFTA after five years unless all three parties agree it should continue. Imagine the uncertainty of having all three countries debate the merits of trade every five years. How could anyone plan to build a factory with a useful life of 30 years? NAFTA would cease to exist for the purposes of long-term business investment.

The second troubling proposal concerns the rules of origin. Currently, 62.5% of a car or a truck must be produced in the U.S., Mexico or Canada for it to qualify for duty-free treatment under NAFTA. The U.S.’s proposal would require that 50% of the vehicle be produced in the U.S. This would be immensely harmful to the North American auto industry. It’s impossible to replace long-established multi-billion- dollar supply chains so most companies would simply pay the generally low U.S. tariffs. Manufacturers would then source more inputs from Asia.

The third concern is the administration’s proposal to eliminate Chapter 19, the process for dispute  settlement for anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
 
This comes at a time where the U.S. wants to impose a ludicrous 300% tariff on Bombardier jets, which is above even what Boeing had asked for. Chapter 19 is a critical safety net because it enables an independent, binational panel of five arbiters, agreed by both parties, to determine whether or not the duties have merit based on U.S. domestic laws. This is a must-have for Canada.

The final jaw-dropping proposal would drastically reshape NAFTA’s procurement rules. U.S. negotiators are proposing a “dollar for dollar” approach to North American procurement markets. That would mean “the total value of contracts the Canadians and Mexicans could access, together, couldn’t exceed the total value that U.S. firms could win in those two countries.” This is quite simply the worst offer ever featured in a trade agreement and is worse than basic access to government procurement offered under the WTO. Canada would be better off with no agreement at all than signing on to this nutty nonsense.

At the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, we salute the government’s efforts on NAFTA. The government has done everything possible: our negotiators have been outstanding, Minister Freeland and the entire Cabinet have invested enormous time in building relationships in the U.S., and the PM has invested his political capital and considerable charm to go to bat for NAFTA.

ut, if the U.S. administration is not serious about negotiating a mutually beneficial agreement, then we believe no deal is preferable to a bad deal. This is because a trade agreement will last many years. The Trump administration, we’re not so sure…

For more information, please contact:

Hendrik Brakel

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284) 

[email protected]

We remain optimistic that NAFTA 2.0 could be a huge boost to the economies of North America because there is so much to be gained. But we’re also starting to worry: anti-trade rhetoric and posturing could veer the talks towards trouble. There are a lot of contentious issues to resolve in an unreasonably short deadline. Trade, in general, and NAFTA, in particular, are massively unpopular with Trump supporters.

And the decision-making in Washington D.C. around trade issues has become increasingly chaotic, with U.S. business groups pushing back aggressively against nationalists in the administration. We’ve already seen an executive order to withdraw from NAFTA, where President Trump told the Washington Post, “I looked forward to terminating. I was going to do it.” It was the uproar from U.S. business that forced the Trump Administration to reverse its position.

And again this week, the U.S. government appeared poised to make a dangerous decision on steel tariffs. The Commerce department was supposed to brief Congress on the tariffs last Friday, but the meeting was cancelled. Officials are now scrambling to alter the decision after ferocious blowback from U.S. business.

The lesson is clear: the most important group advocating trade is not politicians or (god help us) economists. It’s the business community because businesses understand the real world consequences, the jobs that depend on trade. These folks have a very powerful message that resonates with the general public as well as local members of Congress and Senators. And they are the most credible on the benefits of trade.

It’s exciting to see business at the forefront of this campaign, and we need your help. The Canadian Chamber is organizing visits to key U.S. states, including Tennessee, Texas and Georgia. (We’ve already been to Virginia and South Carolina.) We’ll be meeting local businesses and U.S. political leaders to raise awareness of the benefits of the Canada-U.S. relationship and to point out the risks of damaging it.

Our CEO, Perrin Beatty, recently pointed out, “When you go to Washington and meet politicians on Capitol Hill, you’re just another foreign lobbyist. But when you go out to their congressional district in Memphis, with Canadian business leaders who are investing in the local economy, importing their goods and hiring their workers, then you are priority number one.”

Participants are needed to make this strategy effective. Businesses, large and small, in all sectors are invited. We would also appreciate if you could provide us with information about your relationships in those states— the key suppliers, major investments, etc. Canadian firms with local offices in these states can help by alerting the local branches of our visits and asking them to participate in events or perhaps host site tours, etc. If you’d like to participate or join any of our delegations, please email us.

We’re also playing a direct role in Canada’s NAFTA negotiations. Our CEO met last week with the Cabinet Committee and our Vice President is on the Chief Negotiator’s consultative committee. Our framework NAFTA brief has been submitted to the Global Affairs department. We’ll be providing additional information to our trade negotiators in the coming weeks and months. If you have trade issues that you want us to bring to Canada’s NAFTA negotiators, please email us.

Let’s put the power of the network behind NAFTA. Our economies and our jobs depend on it.

For more information, please contact :

Hendrik Brakel

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284) | [email protected]

Tick-tock! The U.S. Trade Representative just sent the official notification to Congress that NAFTA negotiations will begin in 90 days. The Canadian government must now negotiate and resolve all the hot button issues with our American and Mexican friends—in the midst of a highly charged political environment. How will it play out?

For the next 90 days, every special interest and aggrieved Wisconsin dairy producer will have a chance to provide input during the consultation period under Trade Promotion Authority. Then, whatever new agreement is negotiated must pass the House and the Senate. All three governments want NAFTA 2.0 wrapped up ASAP. Canada wants to end the uncertainty that is hurting investment, and for our partners, it is even more urgent.

Mexico’s presidential election is set for July 2018 and will be in full election season by the early spring. Polls show the current leader is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a fiery left-wing nationalist who filed a human rights complaint against Mr. Trump and his plans for the border wall. He calls it embarrassing to see the current Mexican government prostrate before Trump. Mexico’s government would dearly love to conclude the NAFTA well before the election.

Similarly, U.S. mid-term elections will be held on November 6, 2018, and Republicans need to show progress on trade. The likelihood of NAFTA passing Congress drops off significantly after the mid-terms.

Gallup points out that when the U.S. President has an approval rating below 50%, his party loses an average of 36 seats during mid-term elections. President Trump’s approval rating is well south of 50%, in the high-30s. If the administration remains mired in scandals, special counsels and the Russian Connection, the Republican house is likely to lose its 31-seat majority. Would a newly-elected Democratic house be eager to pass Mr. Trump’s NAFTA?

No way. Is it even possible to renegotiate NAFTA before the deadlines? The original Canada-U.S. FTA took 18 months (May 1986 to Oct 4 1987), and our governments at the time were the closest of friends.

So it’s possible but very unlikely because of the politics. We often hear from Americans that Canada is not the main target of U.S. trade ire. Canada just needs to give the Trump administration a PR win, which it defines as a big give on supply management and softwood lumber, then it can have whatever it wants— regulatory cooperation, movement of people, maybe even an exemption from Buy American.

But the politics are awful because Mr. Trump’s bullying, blustering threats have made it impossible for Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Pena Nieto to agree to concessions without appearing weak. Their supporters despise Mr. Trump and would be furious. And even if it wasn’t politically poisonous, why should we make concessions for another country’s domestic politics?

There may be another way. The USTR referred to NAFTA modernization as opposed to renegotiation. In the past, NAFTA has been amended extensively without going back to Congress. We could add a chapter on ecommerce, fix the rules of origin and sign a bunch of side letters that could give the Americans the win they need. Let’s hope they take what they can get. Otherwise, NAFTA 2.0 is doomed.

Hendrik Brakel

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284)

[email protected]

From Europe to the U.S.A., our largest trading partners are burning up with anti-trade fever. Is it a short-term flu of harmless populism or the most destructive strains of anti-globalization since the 1930’s?

Last week the Trump Administration leaked a draft executive order to withdraw the U.S. from NAFTA. “I was all set to terminate,” Trump told the Washington Post “I looked forward to terminating. I was going to do it.” What changed his mind?

He backed down after an uproar from U.S. business groups, ferocious blowback from Congress (Senator John McCain said it would be a “disaster”), and calls from the leaders of Canada and Mexico. Apparently the decisive factor was a map of the United States showing the areas that would be hardest hit from cancelling NAFTA and highlighting that many of those counties, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing had voted Trump last November. The blustery threat and same-day retraction inflamed public opinion in Canada and Mexico, so that it will be even harder for those governments to make concessions to the U.S. What could be nuttier?

Frexit. If France elects a President dedicated to exiting the European Union and abandoning the Euro, it would be much worse than Brexit, perhaps leading to a break-up of the EU. Should we be worried?

We will find out on May 7th when the people of France vote in the second round of the Presidential election. The parallels with the U.S. are striking – Marine Le Pen presents herself as a champion of the oppressed working class, les oubliés (“the forgotten”) and she promises to stop immigration, withdraw from the EU, and impose tariffs to protect French business. Her opponent, Mr. Macron is in the centrist Hillary position with somewhat vague promises that are proEU and include investments in training, along with more flexibility and lower taxes for French business. Mr. Macron has a massive lead in the polls, but analysts point to severe trauma in the French political system. From the Euro crisis and bank bailouts, to an influx of migrants, economic stagnation, and terrorist attacks, the French have never been more disenchanted with their elites. In fact, both of the major parties (the equivalents of the Liberals and Conservatives) were eliminated in the first round.

There’s been much talk about a world-wide trend of government elites losing to anti-trade populists, but don’t count on a big win for Madame Trump. Extremist candidates were defeated in the Netherlands and Austria, because of concern about the economic consequences and also because messages of openness do resonate. Polls show that significant numbers of Trump voters and Brexiteers are experiencing regret.

Personally, I think Ms. Le Pen has pushed her luck too far with a promise to exit the Euro. This means that all financial assets, debts and pensions would have to be converted from Euros to some new currency to be introduced by Ms. Le Pen. Hear that, French seniors? Your life savings could be devalued and switched into new Francs from the Front National. Good luck.

That’s the point of Brexit, Frexit, threats to withdraw from the EU/NAFTA and trade wars generally. It’s lots of fun to bluster and bash trade, but there are real consequences and real job losses. Sometimes we only see the benefits of free trade when someone threatens to take it away. So let’s hope the French come to the same conclusion as so many Dutch, Austrians, remorseful Brits and American businesses to embrace openness. Because despite all the uncertainty, faster growth in global trade is just around the corner.

For more information, please contact:

Hendrik Brakel,

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284)

[email protected]