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The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and the potential for sustained tariffs have already begun to erode business confidence in Ontario. 

A survey conducted in February by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC) has revealed that more than 80% of businesses believe U.S. tariffs are clearly impacting confidence in Ontario’s economy. 

Coupled with the results of the OCC’s 2025 Ontario Economic Report released last month which revealed that business confidence had risen from a historic low of 13% to only 26% in 2024, Canada’s economy remains in a precarious position in wake of U.S President Donald Trump’s continued tariffs attacks.

“The problem is we have Trump, a 78-year-old man trying to run a country in the same manner as it would have been run in 1968,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher. “But that country doesn’t exist anymore.”

He notes Trump’s continued claim that NATFA (North American Free Trade Agreement) resulted in the closure of 90,000 plants and factories in the U.S. is an exaggeration as well as touting that introducing exorbitant tariffs will eliminate the need for income tax.

Many industries at risk

“It’s literally impossible for that to happen,” says Greg, adding revenue from tariffs would equate to about 2% of the U.S. budget. “His whole end game centres on minerals, considering all he talks about is titanium and lithium from Ukraine. There’s no question about it.”

But in the wake of this pursuit, experts agree the impact of sustained tariffs will hit Canada hard.

The manufacturing sector stands at the forefront of potential adverse effects due to its substantial contribution to Ontario's economy and its heavy reliance on U.S. markets.

The automotive industry, a cornerstone of Ontario's manufacturing base, is especially vulnerable. Tariffs could render Canadian auto parts and vehicles less competitive, leading U.S. companies to seek alternative suppliers. This shift threatens to result in decreased production, layoffs, and a contraction within the sector. 

Beyond automotive manufacturing, other industries such as steel and aluminum production are also at risk. 

In retaliation to the U.S. tariffs, the federal government has already announced a $155 billion tariff package targeting various U.S. goods. The first phase included 25% tariffs on $30 billion worth of U.S. imports, confirmed March 4, encompassing products like orange juice, peanut butter, wine, spirits, beer, coffee, appliances, apparel, footwear, motorcycles, cosmetics, and pulp and paper.

An additional list targeting $125 billion worth of U.S. goods is under consideration on products such as electric vehicles, trucks and buses, certain fruits and vegetables, aerospace products, beef, pork, and dairy. 

Businesses ready to adapt

While these countermeasures aim to protect Canadian interests, they also risk escalating trade tensions, potentially leading to a trade war that could further destabilize Ontario's economy.

The results of the OCC tariffs survey reflect these concerns considering 77% of the 600 respondents said they expect U.S. tariffs will negatively impact their business, while slightly fewer (74%) believe that Canadian tariffs will have a negative impact.

However, when it comes to adapting to U.S. tariffs, approximately half (52%) of the respondents remain confident in their businesses ability to do so, something that doesn’t surprise Greg.

“When Canadian entrepreneurs are pushed, they become very structured and organized and say if our only option is to branch out and look elsewhere, then we're prepared to do that,” he says, adding having 52% of business owners prepared to seek other opportunities and avenues is a positive sign. “It just demonstrates that the structure of the businesses in Canada are probably more resilient than they are anywhere else, even compared to businesses in the U.S. They’re not relying on Donald Trump when it comes to changing his mind, they're relying more on themselves.”

Key findings of the OCC tariffs survey

The OCC conducted an online survey from Feb. 7-23 in co-ordination with local Chambers and Boards of Trade

Business confidence

• 60% of respondents do not currently feel confident in Ontario’s economic outlook, with nearly a quarter indicating they are not at all confident (24%).
• 88% of respondents indicated the U.S. tariffs are negatively impacting Ontario’s economy. In fact, 51% said that U.S. tariffs will have a significant negative impact on their confidence in the province’s economy.

 Business impacts of U.S. tariffs

• 77% expect U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods will negatively impact their businesses, while 74% expect Canadian tariffs will also be negative for them.
• 26% are expecting decreases sales/revenue and/or increased costs, while 23% expect increased costs of raw materials.  About 21% expect changes in customer demand because of tariffs.

 Adapting business to U.S. tariffs

• 52% of responding businesses are confident they can adapt with ongoing trade tensions between Canada and the U.S.
• 35% of businesses say they are diversifying their suppliers or considering it while 24% are considering a price increase. Approximately 84% said they are not looking to relocate any part of their business operations due to U.S. tariffs.
• 36% of respondents are anticipating a shift in market focus, while 31% expect innovations in products/services in their industry.
• 48% of respondents would welcome information and guidance, or advocacy when it comes to dealing with U.S. tariffs, while 41% would welcome financial assistance.

Click here to read survey results.

The impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on Canadian imports and Canada’s counter tariffs has significant implications for various sectors of our economy, including tourism, with Ontario poised to experience both direct and indirect effects on this industry.

The Canada-U.S. border has traditionally seen substantial movement of tourists in both directions. However, these escalating trade tensions have led to a surge in nationalistic sentiments, influencing travel decisions.  Reports have indicated that many Canadians plan to boycott travel to the U.S. in response to Trump’s tariffs, opting instead for domestic destinations or alternative international locations, a trend that has not gone unnoticed by tourism experts. 

“We're hearing that 40% of Canadians that had booked a trip to the U.S. have cancelled their plans,” says Explore Waterloo Region CEO Michele Saran, noting travel destinations nationwide are expecting an uptick in tourists this summer. “If I was a Canadian destination that actively pursued the U.S. market, right now I would be pushing the exchange rate really hard.”

Potential side-effects

However, economic downturns typically result in reduced disposable income, which can lead to a decline in domestic tourism as residents may cut back on travel and leisure activities.

Moreover, the weakening of the Canadian dollar is likely to make international travel more expensive for Canadians, potentially reducing outbound tourism. But on the flipside, a weaker Canadian dollar could make Canada a more attractive destination for foreign tourists, as their currencies would have greater purchasing power. 

There are also potential side-effects surrounding the impact heightened political tensions and changes in consumer sentiment that have been created.

“I have been told that Americans are expressing concern about how they'll be treated if they come to Canada right now,” says Michele. “So, they're a little bit reticent about it right now. But from a leisure travel perspective, Waterloo Region has always focused on marketing in Southern Ontario.”

In fact, she says the travel organization is in the process of creating and promoting new packages to encourage visitors to spend more time here once they arrive.

Specific marketing

“We want to provide them with options they can’t find in downtown Toronto,” she says of this new promotional tactic. “We're giving them an itinerary so that they'll be able to create a mental movie of a staycation in Waterloo Region and how they could spend their time here.”

Michele says Explore Waterloo Region is conducting specific marketing targeted at couples, families and groups of friends highlighting the authentic ‘experiences’ that cities located on the edge of nature can offer. 

“We're testing them right now at the target market to make sure we mitigate any risk to make sure that these markets find them compelling,” she says, noting Waterloo Region’s proximity to the GTA will likely prove to be an even bigger advantage this year.  “About 90% of our leisure visitors come from that area. It’s easy to get here and we also have we have both rural and urban, so there's something for everyone when you come to the region.”

Annually, Waterloo Region attracts approximately five million visitors not just for leisure visits, but conferences, meetings, and sporting events, which translates into nearly $560 million for the local economy. 

To learn more, visit Explore Waterloo Region.

Tourism stats:

• Canada is the biggest source of international visitors to the U.S. accounting for for 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs. 
• According to the U.S. Travel Association, even 10% less Canadian tourists to the U.S. could mean 14,000 job losses in related industries in that sector and two million less visitors.
• Florida, California, Nevada, New York, and Texas are the top states Canadians visit. Since shopping is a popular activity for Canadian visitors, these states could see steep declines in retail and hospitality revenue.
• Ontario’s Highlands Tourism Organization (OHTO) recently revealed that visitors are increasingly seeking meaningful experiences that allow them to reconnect with friends, family, and nature. This trend is reflected in a noticeable shift in spending patterns; between January and September 2024, visitor spending reached $399 million, marking a 12% increase over the previous year.
• In January 2025, more than $1.4 million was allocated to 10 organizations across southern Ontario federal government. Notable projects include the creation of a looped trail connecting Burlington to the Niagara Escarpment trail network and the Bruce Trail, aimed at augmenting active outdoor visitor experiences. Additionally, enhancements to were announced for the Hydrocut mountain bike trails in the Waterloo Region.

The high cost of living, inflation, housing affordability, and rising operational costs top the lists of concerns for Ontario businesses, according to the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s (OCC) most recent Ontario Economic Report (OER). 

The report shows a significant rise in business confidence over the course of 2024, climbing from a historic low of 13% to 26% by year’s end. Despite this improvement, confidence remains historically low and fragile, with 48% of businesses expressing a lack of confidence in the economy. Affordability and the cost of living continue to be the most pressing concerns for businesses.

The survey, conducted between October 15 and December 2, 2024, gathered insights from 1,714 respondents representing a diverse range of industries, regions, and organizations.

The results show that when U.S. tariff threats are on the table, business confidence drops dramatically to just 15%, almost erasing the last year’s gains, according to the OCC’s separate tariff survey in early February. This recent research also shows that with tariffs in play, six in ten (60%) business decision makers would lack confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook.

“I may not use the word fragile describing the confidence level and instead use the word tempered,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher. “People's optimism for the future of business in the short term is tempered by the impact of Trump’s tariffs. I think most people in business realize that the impact of any decision is probably going to be short term. Whether or not tariffs are long term isn't the issue, it’s the impact of tariffs. So, after a period time, the marketplace settles down and people get used to whatever is the new reality.”

Ontario’s economic outlook varies

Confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook varies significantly across industries, with the information and cultural industries sector reporting the lowest level of optimism at just 17%.  Businesses in this sector cite high operational costs, shifting consumer behaviour, declining advertising revenues, and mounting pressures from technological disruption, global competition, and regulatory challenges as key drivers of their pessimism.

The retail (18%), non-profit (20%), utilities (21%), and accommodation and food services (22%) sectors follow closely, reflecting the impact of declining consumer spending amid heightened cost-of-living pressures.

The agriculture sector, while showing a slight improvement over last year, also remains among the least confident sectors (22%). Concerns in this sector centre on extreme weather events, trade and supply chain barriers, and growing labour gaps and succession planning challenges as a significant portion of the workforce approaches retirement.

By contrast, confidence is strongest in the mining (56%), finance and insurance (40%), and administrative and waste management services (40%) sectors. This could be explained by the strong demand for critical minerals supported by Ontario’s Critical Minerals Strategy, rising sustainability initiatives the finance sector’s ongoing resilience, and growth driven by fintech advancements. These sectors demonstrate adaptability and the ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Survey respondents remain optimistic

Regionally, most of Ontario’s regions outside the GTA saw a significant reduction in confidence compared to the previous year.

Confidence is lowest in Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (19%), Northeast Ontario (21%), and the Greater Ottawa Area (21%), where in addition to concerns surrounding high costs and housing affordability, businesses are disproportionately sensitive to government policies and investments and have suffered more extreme weather events than other regions.

Confidence is highest in the Greater London Area (34%), a significant rebound from last year (9%). This resurgence is likely fueled by strong consumer demand, and domestic manufacturing capacity and supply chains, including the announcement of the Volkswagen EV battery plant in St. Thomas.

Despite the challenges, respondents report relative optimism about their own business growth prospects. Nearly half (49%) express confidence in their own future, citing factors such as strong consumer demand, innovation, and improved inflation management, something that doesn’t surprise Greg.

“I think that you'll find that there's going to be a growth and optimism because many sectors in Canada are going to strengthen as a result,” he says. “We’ve never been the ‘buy Canadian’ kind of a nation and the U.S. has always had buy American programs in place because we’ve always understood we were a player in the global market.”

He says there are initiatives created by the Provincial and Federal governments to encourage Canadian businesses to look at other, more reliable markets, rather than depending on the American market.

European Union agreement key

“Why we perceive the U.S. market to be unreliable right now is because anything that the American government does that impacts the trade with their nation is exponential in our case because 80 per cent of our GDP goes to the United States,” says Greg. “So, we're vulnerable to every whim of the U.S. government. For us to get more reliable sources, we need to diversify so we need to have relationships in the European Union.”

He notes the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which Canada signed in the fall of 2016, has been underutilized. 

“I think it stands to reason that we have not served ourselves well by not really looking seriously at the European Union for economic trade,” says Greg, noting this happened primarily because of our expectation the U.S. would always remain a reliable trading partner.

“We need to understand what the reality of this is going to be going forward and whether we do get aggressive when it comes to find other trading partners.  And if Canadians continue to buy Canadian that will really impact the U.S. exponentially because we do consume a lot of American products.”

Click here to read the report.

Report highlights: 

• Business confidence in Ontario’s economy has doubled in the past year, rising from 13% to 26%, but a majority of respondents (48%) lack confidence in the economy. 
• High costs remain the top concern for businesses, with 78% citing the cost of living, followed by inflation (62%), housing affordability (57%), and rising operational costs (51%).
• Simplifying or reducing business taxes (42%) is the most frequently cited policy solution to improve economic conditions, followed by affordable housing (32%), health system capacity (30%) and workforce development to solve labour shortages (29%).
• While businesses recognize the economic importance of technology adoption, environmental sustainability, diversity and inclusion and Indigenous reconciliation, businesses report a need for support and guidance in seizing these opportunities.
• Businesses report being ill-equipped to support workers and communities through mental health and addictions challenges. For example, while 71% of businesses recognize the importance of mental health and well-being to their success, only 41% have formal mental health strategies.
• Business leaders are confident in their ability to adapt to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada with nearly half (48%) reporting confidence, while 32% are neutral and only 15% expressing a lack of confidence. 
• Ontario’s post-pandemic recovery faces significant headwinds, including potential U.S. tariff threats, geopolitical instability, lagging productivity, affordability challenges, and rising unemployment.

While the recent 30-day postponement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures came as welcomed news to businesses, the lingering presence of these threats remain prompting the Chamber network to act using a variety of tactics, including advocacy, negotiation, education and promoting partnerships.

Trump’s demand for 25 per cent blanket tariffs on all Canadian goods, with the exception of a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy, and Canada’s proposed retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods, has sent economic shockwaves through both nations prompting calls for action on both sides of the border.

To clearly map out the vital importance of the trading relationship between the two countries and the risks businesses face, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab has introduced the Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker —a new tool designed to illustrate the ties between the two economies. It notes that $3.6 billion in goods crosses the Canada-U.S. border daily, generating a $1.3 trillion annual trade relationship.

"A 30-day delay means more time for Canadian businesses and governments to drive home the point that tariffs make no sense between the two closest allies the world has ever known,” said Candace Laing, President and CEO, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “The Canadian Chamber, our network and businesses across the country will spend every day of it fighting hard to secure this historic, robust trading relationship. Raising the cost of living for Americans and Canadians with these taxes is the wrong move. Canada and the U.S. make things together, and we should in fact be building on that.”

Call to dismantle interprovincial trade barriers

It is a sentiment echoed by her colleagues at the Ontario Chamber of Commerce who have rallied their members, which includes the Cambridge Chamber, in a show of unity and strength and targeted actions including supporting a unified call for Canadian premiers to quickly dismantle interprovincial trade barriers and the creation of a business and trade leadership coalition.

Called the Ontario Business & Trade Leadership Coalition (OBTLC), it aims to unit leaders from key trade-dependent sectors to champion business-driven solutions, advocate for effective government policies, and solidify Ontario’s position as a global leader in trade.

“President Trump has claimed the U.S. doesn’t need Canada – but we are here to show just how invaluable we are. Ontario businesses are stepping up to safeguard our economy and reinforce our global competitiveness,” said Daniel Tisch, President and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “The Ontario Business & Trade Leadership Coalition represents a united response – a coalition of industry leaders committed to resilience, collaboration, and growth.”

BestWR brings business groups together

But the fight to ward off economic turmoil caused by these tariff threats has also been ramped up locally, says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher, through the revival of a unique partnership created during the pandemic to assist businesses.

“We created the Business Economic Support Team of Waterloo Region (BestWR) during COIVD-19 consisting of organizations that are fundamentally engaged in the economic activities through business in the region and have brought it back as a support mechanism for local businesses with respect to trade,” he explains. “It was created during the pandemic, but this is now really about a united force of business organizations helping local businesses navigate these turbulent trade waters.”

Besides the Cambridge and Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chambers, BestWR also includes Waterloo EDC, Communitech and Explore Waterloo Region.

“We are engaged right now with regional municipalities to create opportunities whereby we can offer a support role in helping local businesses find local or Canadian suppliers, or to expose local businesses to the products they currently manufacture or sell and may be able to find Canadian customers for,” says Greg, noting BestWR also has strong federal and provincial connections which they will use to assist businesses.

“We have the insight to be able to tap into key levers within provincial government and within the federal government to have input on what potential supports those governments may need to provide businesses to keep them moving through this turmoil.”

Ask the Expert returns

As a further measure to assist, both the Cambridge and KW Chambers have revived their online tool 'Ask the Expert'.

These weekly Zoom calls - created during the pandemic to provide business leaders with current information – will now provide an opportunity for manufacturers and businesses in the region who export to the U.S. to ask questions.

“We will invite various experts to take part in the one-hour call, and hopefully get some answers to their questions and help them keep their business humming along and doing the things they need to do to support their employees,” says Greg.

'Ask the Expert' will take place every Thursday, between 9-10 a.m.

“This all about businesses,” he says. “And how do we navigate the turbulent challenges ahead and make it a win for Canadian businesses.”

The Chambers have also revamped the chambercheck website (which offered timely resources for businesses during the pandemic) to provide a growing list of trade-related resources to inform and assist businesses.

Reasons for businesses to remain confident and optimistic:

Economic Resilience

Canadian businesses have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of past economic challenges. Our diverse economy and strong trade relationships beyond the United States provide a buffer against potential disruptions.

United Response

The Canadian government, provincial leaders, and business organizations like your local Chamber of Commerce are presenting a united front in response to this threat. This co-ordinated approach strengthens our negotiating position and demonstrates our commitment to protecting Canadian interests.

Potential for Internal Growth

For years the Chamber network has been encouraging the government of Canada to remove interprovincial trade barriers and unlock the economic prosperity lying dormant in these archaic policies. This situation presents an opportunity to address long-standing interprovincial trade barriers and by removing them boost Canada's economy by up to $200 billion per year, potentially offsetting the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Mutual Economic Interests

It's important to remember that the proposed tariffs would also significantly harm the U.S. economy. American businesses and consumers would face higher costs and reduced competitiveness, which could lead to pressure on the U.S. administration to reconsider this approach. 

Time for Preparation

With the proposed tariffs not set to take effect until at least March 1, there is time for diplomatic efforts and for businesses to prepare contingency plans as we work our business contacts and channels to influence key stakeholders in the U.S.

Leveraging Canadian Assets

Canada continues to highlight its valuable assets that are strategically important to the U.S., including:

• Energy resources
• Critical minerals
• Nuclear power capabilities
• AI research excellence
• Lumber and building materials
• Automotive
• Agriculture

By emphasizing these assets, Canada is demonstrating that doing business with us is not just beneficial but strategically smarter than alternatives.

Government Support

The Canadian government has a track record of supporting businesses during trade disputes. We can expect measures to be put in place to assist affected industries if the tariffs are implemented.

The end to the recent Canada Post strike came as welcomed news to many businesses but it has inevitably raised concerns about the reliability of one of Canada’s primary delivery services.

While strikes are not uncommon, the disruption they cause can have lasting effects on stakeholder confidence. For many businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs), this disruption may have eroded trust in Canada Post as the overall impacts continue to be tallied. 

“This has been totally devastating to us and our 900 customers,” says Frank Mosey, owner of Tstone Mailing Inc., a Cambridge-based direct mailing business. “Currently, we have lost about 250K in revenue and that pales in comparison to what our customers are experiencing.”

He is not alone. According to Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) President Dan Kelly, smaller firms had been losing $100 million per day with a total damage of $1.6 billion since the month-long strike started Nov. 16.

“Nearly three-quarters of small firms report they will reduce their dependence on Canada Post going forward, making it even more challenging for the corporation to operate in the future,” he was quoted by the Financial Post.

Reliability an issue

To restore confidence, Canada Post will need to demonstrate its reliability in the months ahead. Proactive measures, such as transparent communication, operational improvements, and compensatory programs for affected businesses, could help mitigate lingering concerns.

“There’s no question about it, there is a lot of Canadian businesses that aren’t going to have faith in the Canadian postal system any longer and they are going to try and find alternative solutions; whether it’s through technology or whether it’s through other services that are available,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher. “I think the message to Canada Post is ‘you’d better fix what’s wrong’. Canada Post can't keep losing $750 million dollars a year and continue to operate and really needs to figure out how to do things better.”

While he believes Canada Post workers deserve a wage increase and to participate in a fair negotiation, he says the impact of this labour dispute reached the critical stage very quickly and that support for the 55,000 striking Canada Post workers rapidly waned as the strike dragged on. 

Key bargaining issues have centred around potential expansion into weekend deliveries, with the two sides at odds over how to staff the expansion, plus wage increases, a cost-of-living allowance, and more job protections. Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) members resumed operations Dec. 17 under the terms of the current collective agreements until May 22, 2025.

Businesses need predictability

During the strike, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce network sent two letters to Labour and Seniors Minister Steven MacKinnon and Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos, calling for intervention from the Federal Government to end the walkout. The letters were signed by Chambers and Boards of Trade nationwide, including the Cambridge Chamber.

“According to Statistics Canada’s Canadian Survey on Business Conditions, 90 percent of businesses that recently experienced supply chain obstacles expect those difficulties to either persist or worsen over the coming three months,” the second letter dated Dec. 11 stated. “Businesses need predictability in our supply chains, and yet another labour disruption has unfortunately continued the alarming trend of work stoppages limiting Canada’s ability to deliver goods. This issue extends far beyond gifts and holiday cards; it affects the viability of small businesses and families’ livelihoods.”

Greg agrees and says Canadian businesses should not be held responsible for Canada Post, especially if talk of a potential bailout surfaces if the Crown corporation can’t make the necessary repairs to its financial house.

Shipments continue to shrink

“I think Canada Post has to be responsible for itself. Canadian businesses will support it if it takes that responsibility and does the things it needs to do in order to become profitable, or at least break even,” he says.

In terms of finances, according to its 2023 Annual Report Canada Post recorded a loss before tax of $748 million, compared to a loss before tax of $548 million in 2022 and predicts larger unsustainable losses in the future unless structural challenges with its operating model are addressed.

Also, the postal service’s share of the parcel market has fallen to 29 per cent from 62 per cent before the COVID-19 pandemic, as Amazon and other competitors seized on skyrocketing demand for next-day doorstep deliveries. Canada Post’s shipments have shrunk by nearly a quarter since 2020 to 296 million parcels in 2023.

“Businesses are fed up with government agencies and institutions who leave them in a lurch at a very difficult time and they’re going to try find solutions that will give them a permanent fix to the problem,” says Greg. “I’m sure there are many Canadian businesses that have already done that.”

The holiday season is an important time to boost the bottom line for retail businesses.

But just how much consumers are spending this year is hard to pin down, says Brad Davis, a retired Associate Professor at Wilfrid Laurier University’s Lazaridis School of Business and Economics, who specializes in consumer behaviour and trends.

According to the Retail Council of Canada (RCC) and Leger, this year average holiday spending was expected to be around $972, which is up $74 or eight per cent from the 2023 holiday season. Meanwhile, PwC Canada says Canadian consumers were planning to spend an average of $1,853 on gifts, travel, and entertainment this holiday season, a 13% increase over last year.

Shoppers, it seems, are adopting more strategic behaviours when it comes to gift giving. With inflation still impacting prices, an Angus Reid Group study indicates that 71% of Canadians are budgeting carefully, seeking promotions, and comparing options extensively.

Black Friday and Cyber Week have remained key shopping periods, with many delaying purchases to capitalize on discounts.

“The last few years I've taught I've been kind of really disparaging about spending surveys and I think you see so many of them where the results say one thing and then the actual behaviour is totally different,” says Brad. “I think we've created this environment where there's kind of a disconnect between immediate gratification of purchase and then the actual feeling of having spent money you don't see until the credit card bill arrives.”

That same Angus Reid Group survey, conducted from Oct. 15-21 from among approximately 1,500 Canadians 18 and older, also indicates at least 46% of holiday shoppers were planning to spend less this year. 

Sustainability and quality key factors

Sustainability and quality are also playing a significant role in purchasing decisions this year. Shoppers increasingly prefer high-quality, longer-lasting items and even second-hand products. For retailers, offering compelling loyalty programs and promoting ethical practices could further attract this value-driven demographic.​

Brad says while the holiday shopping season is an important time for many businesses, planning for the long term has also become a priority.

“You’ve got the sales now and the cash flow, but there is so much stuff going on with artificial intelligence and the relationship between online and bricks and mortar stores,” he says. “There’s that balance between being very reactive to what’s happening now and not compromising what you’re going to have to do for that long-term adjustment to current changes. I think many are still dealing with kind of a post-COVID restructuring.”

According to the Angus Reid Group, 26% of Canadians were planning to do most of their holiday shopping in-store this year, while 34% will do the majority online. With half (48%) of small businesses finding it harder to compete with the rise of online giants.

Survey results show Ontarians are leading nationwide in online shopping, with 41% of their holiday budget spent digitally, balancing this with the tactile experience of in-store shopping​, something Brad says is hard to define for many retailers.

“Every retail space has presumably different consumer experience expectations,” he says, adding the term ‘customer experience’ is the mantra retail experts often tout. “But when you have so much traditional retail stuff or a customer experience which is designed to create that kind of more spontaneous or in-store decision making, how do you balance that with online?”

By focusing on value, engaging promotions, and omnichannel excellence, experts say Ontario retailers and businesses should be maximizing their potential this holiday season.

Some key spending drivers this holiday season:

Consumer spending growth: Rising disposable incomes, particularly among millennials and Gen Z, are fueling higher expenditure on gifts, travel, and entertainment​.

Preference for online shopping: Retailers with robust digital platforms and promotions, especially during key events like Black Friday and Cyber Week, are poised for success​.

In-store experience matters: While online shopping grows, 62% of Canadians still value the tactile experience of in-store shopping. For Ontario retailers, curating an engaging, festive in-store atmosphere could capture the attention of consumers seeking the traditional holiday shopping experience​.

Strategic shopping and sustainability: Items like clothing, home essentials, and gift cards dominate wish lists. Retailers offering eco-friendly options or emphasizing value-driven strategies are likely to resonate with shoppers​.

Impact of promotions and loyalty programs: Businesses offering early deals, compelling promotions, and customer-centric loyalty programs will stand out during this competitive season​.

Challenges facing Ontario businesses:

Economic uncertainty: While economic indicators are improving, the lingering effects of inflation mean that consumers remain cautious. Retailers need to balance pricing strategies carefully to attract budget-conscious shoppers without eroding profit margins​.

Supply chain and inventory management: Ensuring adequate inventory while avoiding overstock is critical. Supply chain disruptions seen in previous years underline the importance of proactive planning​.

Diverse consumer preferences: Businesses must cater to a broad range of consumer priorities, from those seeking traditional gifts to those favoring experiences or sustainable options. Flexibility and adaptability will be key​.

The small Canadian businesses with high-growth potential and expectations might not be the ones you have in mind, says a new report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab (BDL).

The report, entitled Scaling Success: The Characteristics of High-Growth Small Businesses in Canada, shows that while many Canadians might think of the tech sector when thinking of firms with high-growth potential and expectations, the common characteristics for small businesses that are most likely to project high growth are, in fact, quite different. These firms typically:

• Have 5–19 employees.
• Have operated between 3–10 years.
• Are in Ontario and Quebec.
• Are based in manufacturing, accommodation and food services, or professional services.
• Are owned by immigrants or visible minorities.
• Are exporters.

The findings in the report do not come as a surprise, says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher, noting the important impact small and medium-sized businesses have on our economy. 

“A lot of people, especially those in decision-making positions of the government, look at small businesses as ‘mom and pop’ organizations on ‘Main Street’, but overlook the fact that even the major employers we have in this country today all started off as small businesses,” he says, noting the success of a previous Cambridge Chamber program several years ago that promoted small businesses called Small Business Too Big to Ignore. “Everything starts small and it’s one step at a time to reach the pinnacle of corporate success.”

According to Statistics Canada, approximately 98.6% of businesses are considered small with less than 100 employees and historically, small businesses have been a key driver of job creation in Canada, employing nearly 70% of the private sector workforce. Despite slower employment growth over the last four years, small businesses continue to account for almost (43%) of all job gains.

Greg says the government, both federal and provincial, must recognize the fact that growing small businesses is the future of economic growth and prosperity in Canada.

Stronger government connections needed

“It’s kind of like nurturing a child. You want that child to be extremely successful and we as parents do things to help that child through the growing and learning years. It’s the same thing government needs to do for small businesses,” he says, adding this is particularly key for a growing number of businesses started by newcomers. “They are coming to Canada for an opportunity and in many cases, they are starting small businesses because they have skills or expertise in other areas but can’t find work, so they create their own opportunities.”

The report details how approximately 12% of small businesses project growth of 11% or more, compared to almost 8% of medium and large businesses. Three percent of small businesses believe they can achieve “high-growth status,” defined as annual growth of 20% or more.

To help small businesses scale effectively, the report recommends public policy that targets firms’ biggest challenges by simplifying financing, reducing regulatory burdens, fostering export growth, and prioritizing upskilling.

To assist, Greg says the government needs to create stronger connections with small businesses which isn’t easy since nearly one and half million exist in Canada and that their ‘voices’ are often watered down. More often, he says decision-makers can easily connect with much larger businesses since there are fewer of them.

“In most cases they are household names and really big companies,” says Greg, noting these same companies often rely on smaller businesses as suppliers. “But the fact of the matter is that small businesses really need a hand up and support to grow to become medium sized or larger employees.”

Chambers a conduit for government

He says Chambers of Commerce, located in most communities nationwide, are the ideal conduit for government to nurture connections with those smaller operations.

“The mantra of ‘Small Business Too Big to Ignore’ is something the Chamber network should be carrying as a banner. That’s our wheelhouse. We have a personal relationship with these businesses.”

The report also underscores increased input costs, inflation, difficulty attracting and retaining labour, and weak consumer demand as key challenges to growth. The most crucial factors for growth include access to financing, the ability to export, technological adoption and a supportive policy environment.

“Canada needs more high-growth firms,” says Marwa Abdou, the report’s lead author and BDL Senior Research Director. “Years of slow economic growth, low productivity and underinvestment have weakened our global competitiveness and resulted in declining living standards for Canadians. Historically, it’s small businesses that have been a key driver of job creation in Canada.”

Click here to read the full report.

A large majority of Canadian businesses are sluggish when it comes to the adoption of Generative Artificial Intelligence (Gen AI), according to the results of a recent report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab (BDL).

The 38-page report details how a multitude of barriers, along with a lack of trust in the new technology, could impede the adoption levels needed to improve Canada’s economic growth.

Locally, the report shows that 11% of businesses in Kitchener-Waterloo and Cambridge are "using", or "planning to use" Gen AI, compared to 18% in Toronto or 15% in Ottawa. 

The report, Prompting Productivity: Generative AI Adoption by Canadian Businesses, underscores how Gen AI (referring to Large Language Models bases and the practical applications built on top of them) can help tackle one of the most significant economic challenges facing Canadian prosperity and standard of life — low productivity — while also exploring what is holding Canadian businesses back from adopting AI technologies.

The results detailed in the report, compiled from a survey of 13,327 businesses in January and February of this year, shows that larger businesses are nearly twice as likely to adopt Gen AI compared to smaller businesses. Overall, the data shows that one in seven businesses (roughly 14%) – mostly larger businesses and industries with highly educated workers – are Gen AI adopters. 

Patrick Gill, BDL's Senior Director of Operations and Partnerships, and the report's lead author, says he's surprised more small businesses haven't been embracing this new technology. 

“I’ve never run into a small business owner who wasn’t run off their feet and wearing multiple hats or wish they could replicate themselves,” he says. “But that’s the nice thing about this tool. With little or at no cost a small business owner or team can leverage this to fill in some of their existing skills gaps.”

According to the report, the top three industries adopting AI includes information & culture (31%), professional services (28%), and finance and insurance (23%). The two lowest to adopt are agriculture, forestry, and fishing (8%) and construction (7%).

Building trust an issue

Patrick says historically, larger businesses usually face more barriers adopting new technologies due to the fact their operations are more complicated and often have technology ‘stacked’ on top of each other.

“Smaller businesses usually face less of a challenge,” he says. “Their biggest challenge has usually been ‘Do I have the money right now to invest in a new technology?.”

Besides potential costs, trust is also a key issue.

“Public trust and the perception of AI will definitely play a crucial role in the adoption of the technology going forward,” says Patrick, noting a survey released last year indicated that Canada was the third most pessimistic country in the world and that only 38% of Canadians view AI in a positive light, slightly ahead of those in the U.S. and France.

Patrick says the Business Data Lab report also indicates that people are nervous about what the adoption of Gen AI will mean for their jobs and notes most agree change will come in the way they conduct their jobs, versus losing them outright.

“Right now, the technology is predominantly being used to augment workers’ abilities and not to replace them entirely,” he says, adding many are looking at Gen AI as a tool that can accelerate production and improve quality and services in effort to reduce costs. “That’s incredibly important during this time of a high-cost operating environment.”

From a global perspective as interest in Gen AI continues to grow, the report indicates that Canadian businesses need to move fast to gain a competitive advantage over global competitors. Low productivity and business investment puts Canadians’ prosperity and living standards at risk and its GDP per capita is now significantly below the U.S. and the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) average.

Businesses must ‘innovate or die’

“Gen AI is a generational opportunity to boost Canadian productivity at a time when our performance is steadily headed in the wrong direction. The time to prompt productivity and act is now. Canadian businesses must innovate or die, and that means embracing Gen AI,” says Patrick. “While adoption has begun in every industry, it’s likely not fast enough for Canada to be competitive on the global stage, especially since three in four Canadian businesses still haven’t tried Gen AI yet.”

Based on two adoption scenarios (“fast” and “slow”), the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s BDL projects that Gen AI adoption by Canadian businesses will reach a tipping point of 50% in the next three to six years.  This may seem fast but is probably not fast enough to keep pace with global leaders. Businesses in the U.S., China and several European countries are investing heavily in AI, likely outpacing Canadian investment.

“Those who move first basically set the standards and capture the largest market share,” says Patrick. “And everyone else is perennially playing catch up.”

He hopes the findings in the BDL report may gently ‘nudge’ businesses into more experimentation when it comes to adopting Gen AI. 

“There are so many low costs and no cost options available, so experiment and give it a try,” says Patrick, explaining how AI can assist with creating emails, marketing, and promotional content, and well as new visuals. “Use and test it and eventually you’ll find a way.”

Click here to the read the report.

Key findings from the report

• Roughly 1 in 7 Canadian businesses (14%) are early Gen AI adopters. They are found within every Canadian industry and region, but are more likely to be exporters, larger businesses, industries with highly educated workers or emerging enterprises.
• Larger businesses are nearly twice as likely to use Gen AI than small businesses.
• 18% of Ontario businesses are ‘already using’ or ‘plan to use’ Gen AI (Toronto rate was 18%, while KW-Cambridge was 11%).
• On its current trajectory, Gen AI adoption by Canadian businesses could reach a tipping in the next 3 to 6 years — likely too slow to keep pace with global competitors.
• Depending on the rate of adoption, Gen AI could grow Canada’s productivity between 1% and 6% over the next decade.
• The factor of “trust” will be important for future adoption, with public interest and acceptance of AI likely being positively correlated with countries’ business adoption rates. Global IPSOS surveys reveal that Canadians are less knowledgeable and more nervous about AI than citizens of most other countries.
• Most businesses using Gen AI are predominately looking to accelerate content creation (69%) and automate work without job cuts (46%).
• Interestingly, replacing workers is not the primary driver of adoption, with only 1 in 8 businesses (13%) that use Gen AI cite its value for replacing employees. 
• Roughly 3 in 10 businesses cite hiring skilled employees and access to finance as top challenges to adopting new technologies.
• Almost 3 in 4 Canadian businesses (73%) have not even considered using Gen AI yet.
• Public interest and perception of the technology are likely additional major barriers to adoption by businesses. 
• It is recommended that Canadian businesses move fast to adopt Gen AI to gain a competitive advantage over global competitors. This means starting with small-scale pilot projects to validate the feasibility and impact of Gen AI before gradually expand to larger initiatives based on successful proofs of concept, all while training and preparing employees for its adoption.
• For its part, government can support Gen AI adoption by upskilling workers, setting adoption targets, tapping the private sector, and among other actions, ensuring regulation is proportionate and risk based.

Recommendations for business

Innovate or die: Canadian businesses need to move fast to gain a competitive advantage over global competitors. With Gen AI so accessible and applicable for every type of business, there is little excuse for Canadian businesses to sit on the sidelines. 

Pilot projects that measure uplift: Start with small pilot projects to validate the feasibility and impact of Gen AI. Compare metrics (e.g., efficiency, costs savings and revenue generation) before and after its implementation.

Change management and employee training: Prepare employees for the adoption of Gen AI. Provide training sessions, workshops, and resources to help them understand the technology and develop new workflows. 

Strategic alignment: Align Gen AI adoption with overall strategic goals. Identify where Gen AI can enhance existing processes, improve customer experience, or drive innovation. 

Data infrastructure and governance: Invest in robust data infrastructure and governance practices. High-quality data is essential for training Gen AI models. Ensure data privacy, security, and compliance. 

Talent acquisition and retention: Attract and retain talent skilled in Gen AI. Recruit data scientists, machine learning engineers and domain experts who can develop and deploy Gen AI solutions. 

Investment in cloud infrastructure: Leverage cloud platforms for scalable computing power. Cloud services facilitate model training, deployment, and maintenance, allowing businesses to experiment and iterate efficiently. 

Leverage public resources: Move faster by basing policies on the federal government’s Guide on the use of Gen AI or tapping available funding, such as the NRC’s (National Research Council of Canada) IRAP AI Assist Program.

The federal Liberals 2024 budget landed last week to mixed reviews, especially among Chamber of Commerce leaders.

While Deputy Prime Minister Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland kept her promise to keep the deficit from growing without raising income taxes on the middle class by tabling Budget 2024: Fairness for Every Generation with a projected deficit of $39.8 billion, slightly below the $40 billion projected last fall, the document contained few surprises.

“Most of the major new spending was announced by the government over the last few weeks, and the government’s projections for the deficit are largely in line with previous predictions. Instead of using a revenue windfall to reduce the deficit more quickly, the government chose to use it along with changes to the capital gains tax, to fund this new spending,” said Perrin Beatty, President and CEO, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “What’s still missing is a clear plan to promote productivity and restore economic growth in Canada. Canada continues to slip further behind our competitors in both of these categories.”

This sentiment is shared by Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher, who says business operators regularly share their frustrations with him regarding the difficulties they continue to face trying to conduct business.

“Their concerns do not seem to reach the ears of the those who make the decisions,” he says. “The reality of it is the framework around how this current federal government wants to address the issues of the day are not conducive to solving the problem but probably more conducive to deepening the problem.”

Housing affordability crisis

Among these issues is the housing affordability crisis, which the budget addresses by putting special emphasis on generational fairness and helping younger people – Millennials and Generation Zs — with programs to help renters and first-time home buyers. While this may bring some relief, Greg says there are other ways to address the issue in a less costly manner.

“There is no secret to building more homes. You must create a market for home builders to access and ensure interest rates are acceptable for homeowners to borrow money and you must simply reduce the costs to developers in building the product we desperately need. None of these issues have ever been addressed by any level of government to this point,” he says, adding despite any incentive programs local political bureaucracies often create barriers for development. “You can throw all kinds of mud up against the wall, but none of it is going to stick when it’s already dry.”

Besides housing, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce says the budget should have addressed the need to build better resiliency surrounding supply chains by providing targeted financial support for small and medium-sized businesses. It has recommended the federal government work with the private sector to invest in digitization infrastructure and explore contingency plans for key trading partners and assess potential vulnerabilities.

“I think those are just sensible things our federal government should always be doing to ensure the flow of goods and services can happen because every issue that all levels of government deal with requires a strong, vibrant economy in order to find solutions to those problems,” says Greg. “Building a more resilient supply chain shouldn’t even part of a budget, it should be a core element of the government’s role.”

Despite these concerns, both he and Beatty both welcomed the budget’s move to support interprovincial trade through the creation of the Canadian Internal Trade Data and Information Hub, something the Chamber network has been seeking for several years.

“Strengthening our internal trade could elevate GDP growth by up to 8% and fortify Canada’s economic foundation,” said Beatty in a release. “It shouldn’t be easier to trade with Europe than it is within our own country.”

Economic survival imperative

Besides interprovincial trade, the budget’s promised investment of $2.4 billion towards building AI infrastructure and adoption advancement also came as welcomed news.

“The investment in AI infrastructure and support of start-ups in the AI field is good for business,” says Greg, adding he was disappointed the budget didn’t contain more regarding the co-ordination of broadband investments with the private sector. “The government has done nothing to extend broadband coverage to remote and rural communities and the fact of the matter is if you don’t have internet, you can’t do business. You can’t function without the most advanced technology.”

Overall, he says the 2024 federal budget sends a clear signal the current government is forgoing economic survival in favour of more social programming, a move that doesn’t bode well for conducting business in Canada.

“While I support taking care of those who can’t care for themselves, and every business I know supports initiatives to help others, we also have to recognize the No. 1 objective of any level of government is to ensure a strong and vibrant economy,” he says. “There are very little initiatives in this budget signalling that Canada wants to develop a robust economy.”

Click here to read the budget.

Several measures announced in the federal budget to assist Ontario’s business community. These include:

• Addressing the housing affordability crisis by investing in building more homes, making it easier to own or rent, and creating new programs to supply low-income affordable housing for those who need it most. The government is proposing a combination of tax measures, low-cost financing and loans, utilization of public lands, streamlined approvals, and programs to assist homebuyers and renters directly.
• Building AI infrastructure and advancing adoption through a $2.4 billion investment. A significant portion of this investment is dedicated to building and providing access to computing infrastructure. An additional $200 million is allocated to support AI start-ups to bring new technologies to the market and accelerate adoption in critical economic sectors.
• Advancing economic reconciliation through a national Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program and funding for Indigenous Financial Institutions that will accelerate capital for Indigenous-owned businesses and projects, support project development, reduce the cost of borrowing, and enable Indigenous communities to benefit from natural resource projects.
• Supporting interprovincial trade through the creation of the Canadian Internal Trade Data and Information Hub, intended to enable all levels of government to work together to eliminate barriers to trade and labour mobility.

The Ontario Chamber network is calling for further action in the following areas:

• Co-ordinating broadband investments with the private sector to avoid duplication and maximize the impact of public programs to enhance redundancy resiliency within broadband networks, collaborating with provinces and territories to establish future federal goals for broadband connectivity, assess opportunities for promoting competition and private sector investments in the sector, and expedite funding commitments while improving coordination with stakeholders to address gaps in private sector expansion plans.
• Bolstering Canada’s life sciences ecosystem by creating new funding streams to encourage innovation and high-risk ventures, working with stakeholders to review approval processes, and enhancing regional collaboration.
• Building more resilient supply chains through targeted financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, working with the private sector to invest in digitization infrastructure, expanding capacity across all modes and channels of distribution, exploring contingency plans for key trading partners, and conducting an assessment to identify bottlenecks and vulnerabilities.
• Implementing broader Employment Insurance reform to reflect the needs of today’s workforce by ensuring the governance, programs, policies, and operations are viable and sustainable, responsive, and adaptable, non-partisan, inclusive, and relevant for current and future generations of Canadian employers and employees.

While economic and technological shocks will always be a constant feature of our world, experts say small businesses must continue to adapt and innovate to stay competitive and satisfy consumer preferences.

“The adoption of technology should be the priority for small businesses and the adoption of AI where it can help bolster their business should also be a priority,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Greg Durocher, noting 98% of Canadian businesses qualify as small businesses.

In its recent report entitled, A Portrait of Small Business in Canada: Adaption, Agility, All At Once, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce touches on this issue as it explores the integral role small businesses  in play in Canada’s economy and sheds light on how these businesses can thrive despite major economic forces working against them — including the rising cost of doing business, the highest borrowing costs in over two decades and increased pandemic debt loads.

The report, which defines ‘micro businesses’ as having 1-4 employees, ‘scale businesses’ as 5-19 employees, and ‘mature businesses’ as 19-99 employees, shows how small businesses of all sizes, ages and industries are already investing in technology to better access data and applications from their computers, tablets, or mobile phones — whether in the office or on the road — to connect better with their customers and employees. However, as the report indicates, a business’s size is important to its ability to not only adopt technology, but also take advantage of a variety of technology tools. The report finds that even more change is essential.

Greg agrees and says the need for smaller businesses to adopt artificial intelligence (AI) is especially imperative.

“In all probability, smaller businesses are less likely to adopt AI technology because they may be fearful of it,” he says. “But the fact of the matter is it may be the only tool that can bring them up and allow them to compete.”

AI and digital technologies

According to the report, across all industries, a higher proportion of small businesses planned to invest in AI and digital technologies. While 62% of micro firms (compared with an average of 55% for all small firms) expressed plans for the latter, 30% of mature firms were keen on investing in AI compared with the all-industry average of 24% for all small businesses. Scale and mature businesses were more likely to adopt multiple technology tools, especially those in finance and insurance, professional services, and wholesale trade.

“If they (small businesses) don’t get knee deep in AI from a business perspective, they may be missing the boat that was inevitably sent to save them,” says Greg.

The report also highlights trends to help small businesses adapt to how Canadian shoppers have evolved. While online shopping accelerated as a result of the pandemic, roughly 75% of Canadian shoppers still visit physical stores for key items like groceries, clothing, automotive, electronics, home and garden, and health products. To meet consumer preferences, businesses need to implement on and offline sales strategies to reach customers.

In the report, the critical importance of having an enticing online commercial presence is highlighted, with 83% of Canadian retail shoppers reporting they conduct online research before they visit a store. Having physical stores near customers also supports online sales, with nearly one in 10 Canadians making purchases online from retailers located nearby.

“There is still an opportunity for small businesses to capitalize on local business by advertising and marketing themselves locally,” says Greg. “But that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t have a strong online presence and look for every opportunity in which AI can help advance your cause.”

Canadian Chamber President & CEO Perrin Beatty says the findings in this report provides yet another signal that more focus is needed to support growth, especially among small businesses.

“We can start by reducing red tape, investing in infrastructure, and enabling an innovation economy,” he said in a press release. “These fundamentals of growth will increase Canadian businesses’ ability to compete and attract investment that will benefit Canadians, their families, and our communities.”

Click here to read the report.

Highlights of the report:

• In June 2023, there were 1.35 million businesses in Canada with paid employees. The over- whelming majority (98% of the total) were conventionally classified as “small” businesses, which collectively employed over 11 million people.
• In the “small business” category, micro firms are by far the most common businesses type in Canada. In fact, if all businesses in Canada were sorted by employment size, the median firm would have fewer than five employees, which underscores the importance of improving our understanding of the business realities of all small firms, but especially micro firms.
• Nearly half of all small businesses are in the following four industries: professional, scientific, and technical services; construction; retail trade; and health care and social assistance.
• Immigrants to Canada own a disproportionate share of private sector businesses (263,850 businesses, or 25.5% of all private sector businesses) compared with their share of population (23%). One strong factor is immigrants’ high share of micro businesses (30%), in contrasts with their underrepresentation in both scale and mature enterprises.
• The past few years have offered women more flexible work arrangements, encouraging them to find more in-demand and higher-paying jobs, while government efforts to increase the availability of affordable childcare have helped women’s labour force participation to rebound. With the transition back to the office, barriers that perpetuate gender-based differences in labour force participation threaten this progress.
• An underrepresented group in terms of business ownership (2.2%) compared with their share of the population (22%) is persons with a disability. Given the prevalence of disability, this gap signals tremendous untapped potential for entrepreneurship, but also one with significant potential effects on socio-economic outcomes, including labour market participation.
• The LGBTQ2+ population (4% of Canada’s total population according to the 2021 Census) is also somewhat underrepresented as business owners (3.3%), lagging most as owners of mature businesses (0.6%).
• Although they are 5% of the country’s population, Indigenous people’s share of businesses owned remains less than half of that (2.2%), although they appear to be doing better on ownership of mature businesses, the largest type of small business.
• The most recent data (June 2023) show that, compared with pre-pandemic conditions in December 2019, the number of businesses increased by 7.3% for large firms, 5.0% for medium firms and only 2.9% for small firms.
• Retail sales data show that e-commerce enjoyed a massive spike early in the pandemic but have since moderated as Canadians go back to in-person shopping. The share of total retail sales from e-commerce increased rapidly from 3.7% in January 2020 to peak of 10.7% just four months later in April 2020. With the lifting of pandemic related restrictions and stores have reopened for in-person shoppers, this figure has since moderated to 5.7%.
• In addition to age, variation by industry showed a strong trend in technology adoption. Overall, average adoption shares across all industries and all technology tools were lowest for micro firms (12%), followed by scale (16%) and then mature firms (22%). Small businesses — particularly scale and mature — in finance and insurance, information and culture, professional services and wholesale trade were consistently among those reporting the highest technology adoption rates.