Blog - Cambridge Chamber of Commerce

While the recent 30-day postponement of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures came as welcomed news to businesses, the lingering presence of these threats remain prompting the Chamber network to act using a variety of tactics, including advocacy, negotiation, education and promoting partnerships.

 

Trump’s demand for 25 per cent blanket tariffs on all Canadian goods, with the exception of a 10 per cent tariff on Canadian energy, and Canada’s proposed retaliatory tariffs on $155 billion of U.S. goods, has sent economic shockwaves through both nations prompting calls for action on both sides of the border.

 

To clearly map out the vital importance of the trading relationship between the two countries and the risks businesses face, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab has introduced the Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker —a new tool designed to illustrate the ties between the two economies. It notes that $3.6 billion in goods crosses the Canada-U.S. border daily, generating a $1.3 trillion annual trade relationship.

 

"A 30-day delay means more time for Canadian businesses and governments to drive home the point that tariffs make no sense between the two closest allies the world has ever known,” said Candace Laing, President and CEO, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “The Canadian Chamber, our network and businesses across the country will spend every day of it fighting hard to secure this historic, robust trading relationship. Raising the cost of living for Americans and Canadians with these taxes is the wrong move. Canada and the U.S. make things together, and we should in fact be building on that.”

 

 

Call to dismantle interprovincial trade barriers

 

It is a sentiment echoed by her colleagues at the Ontario Chamber of Commerce who have rallied their members, which includes the Cambridge Chamber, in a show of unity and strength and targeted actions including supporting a unified call for Canadian premiers to quickly dismantle interprovincial trade barriers and the creation of a business and trade leadership coalition.

 

Called the Ontario Business & Trade Leadership Coalition (OBTLC), it aims to unit leaders from key trade-dependent sectors to champion business-driven solutions, advocate for effective government policies, and solidify Ontario’s position as a global leader in trade.

 

“President Trump has claimed the U.S. doesn’t need Canada – but we are here to show just how invaluable we are. Ontario businesses are stepping up to safeguard our economy and reinforce our global competitiveness,” said Daniel Tisch, President and CEO of the Ontario Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “The Ontario Business & Trade Leadership Coalition represents a united response – a coalition of industry leaders committed to resilience, collaboration, and growth.”

 

BestWR brings business groups together

 

But the fight to ward off economic turmoil caused by these tariff threats has also been ramped up locally, says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher, through the revival of a unique partnership created during the pandemic to assist businesses.

 

“We created the Business Economic Support Team of Waterloo Region (BestWR) during COIVD-19 consisting of organizations that are fundamentally engaged in the economic activities through business in the region and have brought it back as a support mechanism for local businesses with respect to trade,” he explains. “It was created during the pandemic, but this is now really about a united force of business organizations helping local businesses navigate these turbulent trade waters.”

 

Besides the Cambridge and Greater Kitchener Waterloo Chambers, BestWR also includes Waterloo EDC, Communitech and Explore Waterloo Region.

 

“We are engaged right now with regional municipalities to create opportunities whereby we can offer a support role in helping local businesses find local or Canadian suppliers, or to expose local businesses to the products they currently manufacture or sell and may be able to find Canadian customers for,” says Greg, noting BestWR also has strong federal and provincial connections which they will use to assist businesses.

 

“We have the insight to be able to tap into key levers within provincial government and within the federal government to have input on what potential supports those governments may need to provide businesses to keep them moving through this turmoil.”

 

Ask the Expert returns

 

As a further measure to assist, both the Cambridge and KW Chambers have revived their online tool 'Ask the Expert'.

 

These weekly Zoom calls - created during the pandemic to provide business leaders with current information – will now provide an opportunity for manufacturers and businesses in the region who export to the U.S. to ask questions.

 

“We will invite various experts to take part in the one-hour call, and hopefully get some answers to their questions and help them keep their business humming along and doing the things they need to do to support their employees,” says Greg.

 

'Ask the Expert' will take place every Thursday, between 9-10 a.m.

 

“This all about businesses,” he says. “And how do we navigate the turbulent challenges ahead and make it a win for Canadian businesses.”

 

The Chambers have also revamped the chambercheck website (which offered timely resources for businesses during the pandemic) to provide a growing list of trade-related resources to inform and assist businesses.

 

 

Reasons for businesses to remain confident and optimistic:

 

Economic Resilience

Canadian businesses have demonstrated remarkable resilience in the face of past economic challenges. Our diverse economy and strong trade relationships beyond the United States provide a buffer against potential disruptions.

 

United Response

The Canadian government, provincial leaders, and business organizations like your local Chamber of Commerce are presenting a united front in response to this threat. This co-ordinated approach strengthens our negotiating position and demonstrates our commitment to protecting Canadian interests.

 

Potential for Internal Growth

For years the Chamber network has been encouraging the government of Canada to remove interprovincial trade barriers and unlock the economic prosperity lying dormant in these archaic policies. This situation presents an opportunity to address long-standing interprovincial trade barriers and by removing them boost Canada's economy by up to $200 billion per year, potentially offsetting the impact of U.S. tariffs.

 

Mutual Economic Interests

It's important to remember that the proposed tariffs would also significantly harm the U.S. economy. American businesses and consumers would face higher costs and reduced competitiveness, which could lead to pressure on the U.S. administration to reconsider this approach. 

 

Time for Preparation

With the proposed tariffs not set to take effect until at least March 1, there is time for diplomatic efforts and for businesses to prepare contingency plans as we work our business contacts and channels to influence key stakeholders in the U.S.

 

Leveraging Canadian Assets

Canada continues to highlight its valuable assets that are strategically important to the U.S., including:

 

  • Energy resources
  • Critical minerals
  • Nuclear power capabilities
  • AI research excellence
  • Lumber and building materials
  • Automotive
  • Agriculture

By emphasizing these assets, Canada is demonstrating that doing business with us is not just beneficial but strategically smarter than alternatives.

 

Government Support

The Canadian government has a track record of supporting businesses during trade disputes. We can expect measures to be put in place to assist affected industries if the tariffs are implemented.

 

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The following column by Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher appears in the winter edition of our INSIGHT Magazine

 

There’s a chance we might be panicking over nothing after Donald Trump was again elected this past fall as President of the United States, defying political norms in a way few others have.

 

Despite being a convicted felon—yes, by a jury of his peers, not a partisan judge—Trump secured his return to the highest office in the land, with a staggering 34 convictions under his belt. His campaign rhetoric was, as always, polarizing and often crossed the line of decency. 

 

Politics has clearly changed since there was a time when even a fraction of Trump's controversies would have ended a political career. Yet here we are. Some Canadians celebrated his victory, but it perplexes me why anyone north of the border would since he has demonstrated little regard for Canada, dismissing us as an afterthought despite our deep economic ties.

 

The truth is America’s prosperity is intrinsically linked to our resources and partnership.

 

Canada: An Indispensable Ally

 

Consider this: 60% of the crude oil the U.S. consumes comes from Canada. Saskatchewan supplies uranium, which is essential for energy production and national security, and potash essential for the agriculture industry. Quebec powers the northeastern United States with hydroelectricity. Alberta’s natural gas and Canada’s aluminum and steel exports are cornerstones of U.S. infrastructure.

 

But what would happen if we turned off the taps? A trade war would hurt us both, but Canada’s contribution to the U.S. economy is undeniable. Trump’s focus should be on challenges like China and Russia, not antagonizing U.S. allies.

 

Revisiting NAFTA and Trade Tactics

 

However, his threats are nothing new since we’ve seen this playbook before. In 2016, Trump declared NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) dead, demanding a "fair deal." After much posturing, the agreement was merely updated—something long overdue. Trump called it a victory, and his supporters cheered him on, but the changes were only modest at best.

 

Similarly, his famous promise to build a wall funded by Mexico resulted in just 732 km of construction—most of which replaced existing barriers. Mexico, of course, didn’t pay a dime and some of the "new" wall even deteriorated quickly, bogged down by allegations of corruption among Trump’s staff.

 

The Reality of Trump’s First Term

 

Let’s be honest—Trump’s first term was marked by unfulfilled promises and many controversies. His pandemic response was completely disastrous, with state governors openly criticizing his lack of leadership. Who could forget his infamous suggestion to inject bleach as a COVID-19 treatment? Why would a person even suggest that? Trump signed agreements that drove up gas prices, contributing to inflation.

 

Running a country is vastly different from running a private business, and Trump’s approach often revealed his lack of governance expertise.

 

What’s Next?

 

His 25% tariff plan threat on Canadian goods are likely bluster—an opening gambit to pressure Canada and Mexico into renegotiating trade agreements. It really is a strategy very reminiscent of his NAFTA theatrics.

 

In the end, we’ll likely see a slightly revised deal that Trump will tout as another one of his "wins." Of course, his base will applaud, despite little substantial change.

 

Canada’s Challenge

 

For Canadians, Trump’s presidency is very concerning since his leadership style— always chaotic and self-serving—offers no real benefit to Canada. Therefore, we must brace ourselves for uncertainty and prepare to protect our interests.

 

Meanwhile, south of the border, Americans will face the consequences of his polarizing and often ineffective leadership.

 

In the end, Trump’s bravado may have won temporary support from his base, but we must remember it’s critical to separate rhetoric from results. As the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for—you just might get it.”

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The strength of the Chamber network when it comes to advocating for the business community was very apparent recently as representatives from Chambers of Commerce and Boards of Trade nationwide recently gathered in Halifax to debate and approve policies aimed at boosting Canada’s economy.

 

Several hundred delegates gathered Oct. 16-19 at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s CCEC Conference and AGM to network, hear from several high-profile business and industry leaders, but more importantly debate policies that can make a difference at a time when Canada’s productivity is suffering to the point where we rank the lowest among the G20 countries, and small businesses continue to face hardships.

 

“I do think regulation is one of the biggest challenges facing Canadian productivity,” said Shaena Furlong, President & CEO of the Richmond Chamber of Commerce in B.C, while speaking as part of a panel discussion on the outlook for small business. “I think generally in Canada, and this is across all regions, we have problem in that the folks who are imposing regulations on business have only ever signed the back of a pay cheque and there is a sentiment that business and industry are a bottomless well and it’s not just true.”

 

Delegates were told by Isabelle Hudon, President and CEO of BDC, there are now 100,000 fewer entrepreneurs in Canada than there were 10 years ago, an issue touched on by outgoing Canadian Chamber President and CEO Perrin Beatty during a special tribute to his 17 years as head of the organization. 

 

Network provides a strong voice

 

“Capital is fluid, and you are not going to know when an investor chooses not to stay in Canada or not to invest in Canada,” he said. “We need to increase our ease in doing business.”

 

However, Perrin credited the work of the Chamber network and its advocacy efforts to create a better climate for businesses. 

 

“Businesses have never more greatly needed a strong, effective and organized voice,” he said. “I’m confident the Chamber can make an even greater contribution to Canada in the future. You are the ones who will carry out that mission. It will be your imagination and your commitment, your energy and your collaboration that will create a brighter future for our country.”

 

This sentiment is shared by Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Greg Durocher who says a key role of Chambers is to develop policies that can lead to fundamental changes in legislation to create environments where businesses can thrive and in turn, communities can prosper. Greg attended the AGM, along with Board Chair Murray Smith and the Chamber’s policy writer Brian Rodnick.

 

“The policies approved by delegates at the Canadian Chamber AGM and Ontario Chamber AGM provide the tools needed to urge both the provincial and federal levels of governments to make decisions that can assist our economy,” he says. “The Chamber network from coast-to-coast provides a strong voice for businesses.”

 

At this year’s Canadian Chamber AGM, just over 40 of the policy resolutions presented by Chambers and Boards of Trade nationwide, were approved by nearly 300 voting delegates.

 

The policies – which now become part of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s ‘official playbook’ - touched on the following areas: taxation and finance; labour, skills, and immigration; transportation and infrastructure; agriculture; health; manufacturing; and international affairs.

 

 

A policy submitted by the Cambridge Chamber and four others co-sponsored by the Chamber received overwhelming support:

 

Calling for a comprehensive, independent review to simplify Canada’s tax code

Delegates supported a call to reform Canada’s tax system by establishing an independent, comprehensive review of the tax system ensuring its terms of reference focus on simplification and modernization, identifying potential changes to encourage more economic prosperity for Canadians.

 

Implementing a Canada Trade Infrastructure Plan (CTIP) (co-sponsored)

The Chamber network supported a move to have the Federal Government implement, in cooperation with the national business sector and Provinces-Territories, a Canada Trade Infrastructure Plan to guide future planning and construction activities. The hope is to help grow the economy nationwide and ensure that all trade corridors have the capacity to move Canadian goods and service as markets expand.

 

Increasing capacity across Canadian manufacturing (co-sponsored)

Delegates supported a call for the Federal Government to implement a 10% refundable manufacturing investment tax credit for all operations nationwide, like the current Atlantic Investment Tax Credit. 

 

Addressing the affordability crisis by getting back to fiscal balance & right sizing (co-sponsored)

The Chamber networked supported a series of recommendations to bolster the economic wellbeing of the private sector, including working toward bringing down the level of debt, reviewing government expenditures, if necessary, via a Royal Commission, mandated reviews across all ministries and departments that re-examine government services and the implementation of a cash pooling arrangement within and between all departments and ministries.

 

Improvements to the Artificial Intelligence and Data Act (co-sponsored)

The delegates approved a series of recommendations calling for more public consultation when the legislation gets rolled out and assurance that regulations imposed on the industry allow it to remain competitive with other countries including our major trading partners. Also, the policy called for the Federal Government to separate AIDA from Bill C-27 to ensure that it receives due attention and is not held back by other controversial legislation as well as clarifying what makes an AI system ‘high impact’ to better enforce the regulations. 

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The federal Liberals 2024 budget landed last week to mixed reviews, especially among Chamber of Commerce leaders.

 

While Deputy Prime Minister Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland kept her promise to keep the deficit from growing without raising income taxes on the middle class by tabling Budget 2024: Fairness for Every Generation with a projected deficit of $39.8 billion, slightly below the $40 billion projected last fall, the document contained few surprises.

 

“Most of the major new spending was announced by the government over the last few weeks, and the government’s projections for the deficit are largely in line with previous predictions. Instead of using a revenue windfall to reduce the deficit more quickly, the government chose to use it along with changes to the capital gains tax, to fund this new spending,” said Perrin Beatty, President and CEO, Canadian Chamber of Commerce, in a release. “What’s still missing is a clear plan to promote productivity and restore economic growth in Canada. Canada continues to slip further behind our competitors in both of these categories.”

 

This sentiment is shared by Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher, who says business operators regularly share their frustrations with him regarding the difficulties they continue to face trying to conduct business.

 

“Their concerns do not seem to reach the ears of the those who make the decisions,” he says. “The reality of it is the framework around how this current federal government wants to address the issues of the day are not conducive to solving the problem but probably more conducive to deepening the problem.”

 

Housing affordability crisis

 

Among these issues is the housing affordability crisis, which the budget addresses by putting special emphasis on generational fairness and helping younger people – Millennials and Generation Zs — with programs to help renters and first-time home buyers. While this may bring some relief, Greg says there are other ways to address the issue in a less costly manner.

 

“There is no secret to building more homes. You must create a market for home builders to access and ensure interest rates are acceptable for homeowners to borrow money and you must simply reduce the costs to developers in building the product we desperately need. None of these issues have ever been addressed by any level of government to this point,” he says, adding despite any incentive programs local political bureaucracies often create barriers for development. “You can throw all kinds of mud up against the wall, but none of it is going to stick when it’s already dry.”

 

Besides housing, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce says the budget should have addressed the need to build better resiliency surrounding supply chains by providing targeted financial support for small and medium-sized businesses. It has recommended the federal government work with the private sector to invest in digitization infrastructure and explore contingency plans for key trading partners and assess potential vulnerabilities.

 

“I think those are just sensible things our federal government should always be doing to ensure the flow of goods and services can happen because every issue that all levels of government deal with requires a strong, vibrant economy in order to find solutions to those problems,” says Greg. “Building a more resilient supply chain shouldn’t even part of a budget, it should be a core element of the government’s role.”

 

Despite these concerns, both he and Beatty both welcomed the budget’s move to support interprovincial trade through the creation of the Canadian Internal Trade Data and Information Hub, something the Chamber network has been seeking for several years.

 

“Strengthening our internal trade could elevate GDP growth by up to 8% and fortify Canada’s economic foundation,” said Beatty in a release. “It shouldn’t be easier to trade with Europe than it is within our own country.”

 

Economic survival imperative

 

Besides interprovincial trade, the budget’s promised investment of $2.4 billion towards building AI infrastructure and adoption advancement also came as welcomed news.

 

“The investment in AI infrastructure and support of start-ups in the AI field is good for business,” says Greg, adding he was disappointed the budget didn’t contain more regarding the co-ordination of broadband investments with the private sector. “The government has done nothing to extend broadband coverage to remote and rural communities and the fact of the matter is if you don’t have internet, you can’t do business. You can’t function without the most advanced technology.”

 

Overall, he says the 2024 federal budget sends a clear signal the current government is forgoing economic survival in favour of more social programming, a move that doesn’t bode well for conducting business in Canada.

 

“While I support taking care of those who can’t care for themselves, and every business I know supports initiatives to help others, we also have to recognize the No. 1 objective of any level of government is to ensure a strong and vibrant economy,” he says. “There are very little initiatives in this budget signalling that Canada wants to develop a robust economy.”

 

Click here to read the budget.

 

Several measures announced in the federal budget to assist Ontario’s business community. These include:

 

  • Addressing the housing affordability crisis by investing in building more homes, making it easier to own or rent, and creating new programs to supply low-income affordable housing for those who need it most. The government is proposing a combination of tax measures, low-cost financing and loans, utilization of public lands, streamlined approvals, and programs to assist homebuyers and renters directly.
  • Building AI infrastructure and advancing adoption through a $2.4 billion investment. A significant portion of this investment is dedicated to building and providing access to computing infrastructure. An additional $200 million is allocated to support AI start-ups to bring new technologies to the market and accelerate adoption in critical economic sectors.
  • Advancing economic reconciliation through a national Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program and funding for Indigenous Financial Institutions that will accelerate capital for Indigenous-owned businesses and projects, support project development, reduce the cost of borrowing, and enable Indigenous communities to benefit from natural resource projects.
  • Supporting interprovincial trade through the creation of the Canadian Internal Trade Data and Information Hub, intended to enable all levels of government to work together to eliminate barriers to trade and labour mobility.

 

The Ontario Chamber network is calling for further action in the following areas:

 

  • Co-ordinating broadband investments with the private sector to avoid duplication and maximize the impact of public programs to enhance redundancy resiliency within broadband networks, collaborating with provinces and territories to establish future federal goals for broadband connectivity, assess opportunities for promoting competition and private sector investments in the sector, and expedite funding commitments while improving coordination with stakeholders to address gaps in private sector expansion plans.
  • Bolstering Canada’s life sciences ecosystem by creating new funding streams to encourage innovation and high-risk ventures, working with stakeholders to review approval processes, and enhancing regional collaboration.
  • Building more resilient supply chains through targeted financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, working with the private sector to invest in digitization infrastructure, expanding capacity across all modes and channels of distribution, exploring contingency plans for key trading partners, and conducting an assessment to identify bottlenecks and vulnerabilities.
  • Implementing broader Employment Insurance reform to reflect the needs of today’s workforce by ensuring the governance, programs, policies, and operations are viable and sustainable, responsive, and adaptable, non-partisan, inclusive, and relevant for current and future generations of Canadian employers and employees.

 

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I am a small business owner based in Cambridge, Ontario.  Along with my partners, we operate two manufacturing operations employing a total of about 25 people.

 

I am proud of all of the response of our political leaders to this crisis on all levels – local, provincial and federal.  They have taken a sober and analytical approach to the immediate needs of the citizens of this country.

 

Their willingness to commit funds, resources and support to our front line workers, small businesses and all in need will get Canada through this ordeal.

 

As a business owner, my top priority is always looking ahead to determine how I can not only succeed; but avoid unexpected disruption to my team; and minimize our potential for risk of any kind.

 

This is where I think the business community needs more support from our leaders.

 

The question of when we should re-open for business is open for debate.  The leaders in Canada, USA and abroad have differing opinions on this matter. 

 

There is only one question on my mind – what is required for me to do business in a way that will be safe for my team, clients and supply chain?  This is the question that must be answered prior to our return to regular business.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that the scientists of the world will determine when it should happen; using the tools and expertise available to them.  It brings me comfort to know that our Canadian politicians are being guided by science in their decision making process on these issues.  

 

However, there is another component to this decision that I think we are neglecting.  Whenever we return to work, it will be to a new business landscape.  There are new risks, new considerations and a higher expectation from the community for business owners to provide a safe working environment.  As a community, we need to determine what will be required to have in place prior to a return to “regular” business. Until we have a vaccine / “herd immunity”, do workers require masks to be safe?  Do we need to require hand sanitizer at entry points to work areas and require all team members to use?  In Taiwan, there are some common practise expectations for citizens that have allowed them to maintain a very low infection level of COVID without restriction on children being at school, or businesses operating normally.  What can we learn from their example that can help us to prepare to resume our work?

 

If Toyota, Honda, or even my business or a local hair salon re-opened in two or four weeks without making any adaptations to how the risk of COVID transmission is controlled; how will we have made progress against this disease?

 

The saying “time heals all wounds” has never resonated with me.  Time doesn’t heal all wounds; but time does offer us the opportunity to prepare for what is coming at  us next.  We know that the economy will have to resume prior to COVID being completely eradicated.  The question is – what will we as a community do to mitigate the risk of another peak of infection as we make that return to the new normal?

 

There is no question that children will have to return to school; I am less concerned about when that happens than I am about what the plan is to keep them safe and healthy once they are there.  We have the example of how Taiwan has made this work; kids wearing masks and having plastic cubicle style dividers between desks during meals.  Will we use this time to learn from their example and adapt our own action plan for what is required to be in place prior to resuming their in class education?  My hope is that we do. 

 

The Cambridge Chamber of Commerce is starting to gather experts and business owners to start this discussion.  I am proud to be a part of this discussion; I look forward to learning and planning together with others to determine how we as a business community can plan to get back to business.  This is new territory for everyone – consumers, business owners, employees, politicians, government, youth and seniors.  If we can agree on the supports that are needed to re-open in a safe manner, the time spent until that happens can be spent planning and making the required changes to how we do business to accommodate the new reality we live in.  If as a community we neglect this opportunity to plan and adapt, we are destined to repeat this cycle of the pandemic again in the not so distant future.

 

This is work that our Chambers of Commerce, professional associations, industry associations, regulatory bodies or governing standard registrars, perhaps the labour unions and school boards are well poised to do.  They have connections to business in their sector, a communication channel with a broad range of companies in a vertical market, and the support of their members.  If we all pressure these organizations in our own industries to get to work on our behalf, we can start planning for the future.

 

It’s time to change the question from “when can we re-open” to “what is required for a safe and healthy re-opening in my workplace to get through this crisis”?

 

Let’s get to work.

 

Kristen Danson

Managing Partner

MitoGraphics Inc. / Swift Components Corp

519 240-4205 Direct

 

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Never in the history of trade negotiations have we seen a country’s largest, most important business  association openly call its government’s trade proposals “dangerous” and say they should be withdrawn. That is exactly what the U.S. Chamber of  Commerce did yesterday.

 

Canada’s negotiators have done their very best in a challenging environment. They have reached out to Canadian people and business, they have extended a warm hand of friendship to their U.S. and Mexican counterparts and they have tabled sensible, generous proposals to improve NAFTA. But, we all have to prepare for the possibility that the U.S. will withdraw from NAFTA, based on the poisonous proposals U.S. negotiators have presented.

The craziest is a sunset clause that would terminate NAFTA after five years unless all three parties agree it should continue. Imagine the uncertainty of having all three countries debate the merits of trade every five years. How could anyone plan to build a factory with a useful life of 30 years? NAFTA would cease to exist for the purposes of long-term business investment.

 

The second troubling proposal concerns the rules of origin. Currently, 62.5% of a car or a truck must be produced in the U.S., Mexico or Canada for it to qualify for duty-free treatment under NAFTA. The U.S.’s proposal would require that 50% of the vehicle be produced in the U.S. This would be immensely harmful to the North American auto industry. It’s impossible to replace long-established multi-billion- dollar supply chains so most companies would simply pay the generally low U.S. tariffs. Manufacturers would then source more inputs from Asia.

 

The third concern is the administration’s proposal to eliminate Chapter 19, the process for dispute  settlement for anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
 
This comes at a time where the U.S. wants to impose a ludicrous 300% tariff on Bombardier jets, which is above even what Boeing had asked for. Chapter 19 is a critical safety net because it enables an independent, binational panel of five arbiters, agreed by both parties, to determine whether or not the duties have merit based on U.S. domestic laws. This is a must-have for Canada.

 

The final jaw-dropping proposal would drastically reshape NAFTA’s procurement rules. U.S. negotiators are proposing a “dollar for dollar” approach to North American procurement markets. That would mean “the total value of contracts the Canadians and Mexicans could access, together, couldn’t exceed the total value that U.S. firms could win in those two countries.” This is quite simply the worst offer ever featured in a trade agreement and is worse than basic access to government procurement offered under the WTO. Canada would be better off with no agreement at all than signing on to this nutty nonsense.

 

At the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, we salute the government’s efforts on NAFTA. The government has done everything possible: our negotiators have been outstanding, Minister Freeland and the entire Cabinet have invested enormous time in building relationships in the U.S., and the PM has invested his political capital and considerable charm to go to bat for NAFTA.

 

ut, if the U.S. administration is not serious about negotiating a mutually beneficial agreement, then we believe no deal is preferable to a bad deal. This is because a trade agreement will last many years. The Trump administration, we’re not so sure…

 

 

For more information, please contact:

Hendrik Brakel

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284) 

[email protected]

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Guest Column by Perrin Beatty, President & CEO, The Canadian Chamber of Commerce

 

Want to understand the reality of trade in North America? Start at the FedEx Super Hub in Memphis, Tennessee at 1:00 a.m., watching the incredible flood of 3.3 million packages daily, ripping with machine-like efficiency over 300,000 conveyor belts spread out over 862 acres.

 

Our delegation’s four days in Tennessee were designed to provide an opportunity to make the case for Canada. The southern reputation for hospitality is well-deserved in Tennessee. And it seemed like everyone has a connection to Canada. I discovered that the Mayor of Nashville, Megan Barry, once worked for Nortel, that FedEx’s 4,000 pilots train on Canadianmade flight simulators and that Memphis residents can enjoy poutine and Canadian beer at the area’s two Kooky Canuck restaurants.

 

And who says Americans don’t know much about Canada? I met dozens of people who appreciate the importance of Canadian businesses, often because of large Canadian investments. We visited CN’s massive intermodal hub, located slightly outside of Memphis. This hub is CN’s gateway to the south, where it can switch containers from one mode of transportation to the other easily. These connections helped us spread the word about the benefits of doing business with Canada.

 

Most folks weren’t aware that Canada was their biggest trade partner, but they were happy to hear it. Currently, there is nearly $14 billion of trade between Tennessee and Canada (that’s more than our trade with France and Italy combined), and over 170,000 jobs in Tennessee depend on trade with Canada. The numbers are astonishing, and when I met Matt Wiltshire, Director of Nashville’s Economic and Community Development Office, he enthusiastically offered to help spread the word.

 

We had very positive discussions about NAFTA. When we met the Memphis Chamber, the participants rallied around the idea of “do no harm.” We agreed that although NAFTA can and should be modernized, the current structure should be the starting point, without having to reinvent the agreement. Overall, the Americans we met believed the NAFTA renegotiation will go well. That’s why this work is so important.

 

Last week the U.S. Trade Representative released its objectives for renegotiating NAFTA. There are areas of concern for us, but it emphasizes building upon the current NAFTA relationship. However, we worry the scope of the negotiations is extraordinarily ambitious—everything from dispute resolution to rules of origin, services, intellectual property. A major rethink could take years.

 

In Washington, politicians will be under pressure to talk tough and tweet crazy things. The negotiators will set “red lines,” deadlines and “deal breakers.” Things can get hot. I remember the Cabinet meeting when Brian Mulroney ordered our negotiators to walk away from the Canada-U.S. talks. But behind the rhetoric and theatre, Tennesseans reassured us that real business people are still sensible, cooperative and ambitious.

 

Whether it’s a fight over NAFTA or any other friction between our countries, it is so important that we have business allies who will stand with us to say that Canada is a friend, an ally and a partner.

 

Our next stop is Texas and then on to Georgia. If you’d like to participate in any of our delegations, please email us. If you’re looking for more info, click here.

 

For more information, please contact:

Hendrik Brakel

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

 613.238.4000 (284) | [email protected]

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We remain optimistic that NAFTA 2.0 could be a huge boost to the economies of North America because there is so much to be gained. But we’re also starting to worry: anti-trade rhetoric and posturing could veer the talks towards trouble. There are a lot of contentious issues to resolve in an unreasonably short deadline. Trade, in general, and NAFTA, in particular, are massively unpopular with Trump supporters.

 

And the decision-making in Washington D.C. around trade issues has become increasingly chaotic, with U.S. business groups pushing back aggressively against nationalists in the administration. We’ve already seen an executive order to withdraw from NAFTA, where President Trump told the Washington Post, “I looked forward to terminating. I was going to do it.” It was the uproar from U.S. business that forced the Trump Administration to reverse its position.

 

And again this week, the U.S. government appeared poised to make a dangerous decision on steel tariffs. The Commerce department was supposed to brief Congress on the tariffs last Friday, but the meeting was cancelled. Officials are now scrambling to alter the decision after ferocious blowback from U.S. business.

 

The lesson is clear: the most important group advocating trade is not politicians or (god help us) economists. It’s the business community because businesses understand the real world consequences, the jobs that depend on trade. These folks have a very powerful message that resonates with the general public as well as local members of Congress and Senators. And they are the most credible on the benefits of trade.

 

It’s exciting to see business at the forefront of this campaign, and we need your help. The Canadian Chamber is organizing visits to key U.S. states, including Tennessee, Texas and Georgia. (We’ve already been to Virginia and South Carolina.) We’ll be meeting local businesses and U.S. political leaders to raise awareness of the benefits of the Canada-U.S. relationship and to point out the risks of damaging it.

 

Our CEO, Perrin Beatty, recently pointed out, “When you go to Washington and meet politicians on Capitol Hill, you’re just another foreign lobbyist. But when you go out to their congressional district in Memphis, with Canadian business leaders who are investing in the local economy, importing their goods and hiring their workers, then you are priority number one.”

 

Participants are needed to make this strategy effective. Businesses, large and small, in all sectors are invited. We would also appreciate if you could provide us with information about your relationships in those states— the key suppliers, major investments, etc. Canadian firms with local offices in these states can help by alerting the local branches of our visits and asking them to participate in events or perhaps host site tours, etc. If you’d like to participate or join any of our delegations, please email us.

 

We’re also playing a direct role in Canada’s NAFTA negotiations. Our CEO met last week with the Cabinet Committee and our Vice President is on the Chief Negotiator’s consultative committee. Our framework NAFTA brief has been submitted to the Global Affairs department. We’ll be providing additional information to our trade negotiators in the coming weeks and months. If you have trade issues that you want us to bring to Canada’s NAFTA negotiators, please email us.

 

Let’s put the power of the network behind NAFTA. Our economies and our jobs depend on it.

 

For more information, please contact :

Hendrik Brakel

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284) | [email protected]

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Poor Europe! She suffered years of economic stagnation and austerity. Costly government bailouts and a drawn-out banking crisis sapped her confidence. Terrorism and an unprecedented surge of migrants poisoned political debate and encouraged extremists. The final insult came when the British voted to leave her.

 

By the end of 2016, popular wisdom was that Europe’s politics were so shattered and her people so fed up, that upcoming elections would see right-wing extremists swept to power from France to the Netherlands, Austria and Italy. Even the gentle Scandinavians were eager to elect loons!

 

Except that didn’t happen. The elections came and went. The Austrians and the Dutch elected moderates by healthy margins. The Trudeau-like French centrist Mr. Macron won the French presidency by a staggering 30%, in a victory so crushing that his opponent Mme. Le Pen announced her intention to change the name of her political party. Far from a wave of Trumps, Europe is governed by sensible moderates (with the exception of Orban in Hungary).

 

And recently Europe’s economy has gone from strength to strength. All 28 members of the EU saw growth last year, and this will continue through 2017 and 2018.

 

In the first quarter of 2017, the European Union’s economy grew at a healthy 1.9%, more than double the U.S. quarterly growth of 0.7%. European business confidence is near an all-time high for manufacturers and services. More importantly, business is spending – European investment will grow by 3% this year and 3.5% next year. And best of all: European consumers are a happy bunch with low debt levels and money to burn. Last week, consumer confidence hit the highest level since June 2007. Happy days are here again!

 

Canadian businesses see the opportunities. Hudson’s Bay will invest $570 million in Europe this year and are targeting sales growth of 20%. The CEO Jerry Storch says profits will grow even faster than sales.

 

So far in 2017, some of Canada’s fastest growing export markets can be found in Europe. Exports to Germany are up 9%, sales to France are up 14% and the Netherlands are up 10%. And Canada’s investments in Europe are even larger. The total sales by Canadianowned companies operating in Europe exceeds $100 billion. That’s more than triple the value of Canada’s direct exports to the region.

 

Investors have noticed that Europe has her confidence back, and she’s even got a bit of swagger. When Mr. Trump promoted Brexit to other EU countries, the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said “I’m going to promote the independence of Ohio and Texas.” Europe has also started flexing her muscles and is about to embark on a new defence spending spree.

 

And thanks to far-sighted trade ministers, Ed Fast and Chrystia Freeland, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will come into force soon. We’ve all been so focused on the NAFTA renegotiation and those fabulous 3 a.m. tweets. Let’s not lose sight of a spectacular opportunity for Canadian business. With 500 million people and GDP of $18.5 trillion, the EU is the world’s largest economy, so a return to stability and growth will have a stimulating effect on the whole global economy. Welcome back Europe!

 

For more information, please contact :

 

Hendrik Brakel Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284) | [email protected]

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Tick-tock! The U.S. Trade Representative just sent the official notification to Congress that NAFTA negotiations will begin in 90 days. The Canadian government must now negotiate and resolve all the hot button issues with our American and Mexican friends—in the midst of a highly charged political environment. How will it play out?

 

For the next 90 days, every special interest and aggrieved Wisconsin dairy producer will have a chance to provide input during the consultation period under Trade Promotion Authority. Then, whatever new agreement is negotiated must pass the House and the Senate. All three governments want NAFTA 2.0 wrapped up ASAP. Canada wants to end the uncertainty that is hurting investment, and for our partners, it is even more urgent.

 

Mexico’s presidential election is set for July 2018 and will be in full election season by the early spring. Polls show the current leader is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a fiery left-wing nationalist who filed a human rights complaint against Mr. Trump and his plans for the border wall. He calls it embarrassing to see the current Mexican government prostrate before Trump. Mexico’s government would dearly love to conclude the NAFTA well before the election.

 

Similarly, U.S. mid-term elections will be held on November 6, 2018, and Republicans need to show progress on trade. The likelihood of NAFTA passing Congress drops off significantly after the mid-terms.

 

Gallup points out that when the U.S. President has an approval rating below 50%, his party loses an average of 36 seats during mid-term elections. President Trump’s approval rating is well south of 50%, in the high-30s. If the administration remains mired in scandals, special counsels and the Russian Connection, the Republican house is likely to lose its 31-seat majority. Would a newly-elected Democratic house be eager to pass Mr. Trump’s NAFTA?

 

No way. Is it even possible to renegotiate NAFTA before the deadlines? The original Canada-U.S. FTA took 18 months (May 1986 to Oct 4 1987), and our governments at the time were the closest of friends.

 

So it’s possible but very unlikely because of the politics. We often hear from Americans that Canada is not the main target of U.S. trade ire. Canada just needs to give the Trump administration a PR win, which it defines as a big give on supply management and softwood lumber, then it can have whatever it wants— regulatory cooperation, movement of people, maybe even an exemption from Buy American.

 

But the politics are awful because Mr. Trump’s bullying, blustering threats have made it impossible for Mr. Trudeau or Mr. Pena Nieto to agree to concessions without appearing weak. Their supporters despise Mr. Trump and would be furious. And even if it wasn’t politically poisonous, why should we make concessions for another country’s domestic politics?

 

There may be another way. The USTR referred to NAFTA modernization as opposed to renegotiation. In the past, NAFTA has been amended extensively without going back to Congress. We could add a chapter on ecommerce, fix the rules of origin and sign a bunch of side letters that could give the Americans the win they need. Let’s hope they take what they can get. Otherwise, NAFTA 2.0 is doomed.

 

Hendrik Brakel

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce

Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284)

[email protected]

 

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