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The following column by Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher appears in the winter edition of our INSIGHT Magazine

There’s a chance we might be panicking over nothing after Donald Trump was again elected this past fall as President of the United States, defying political norms in a way few others have.

Despite being a convicted felon—yes, by a jury of his peers, not a partisan judge—Trump secured his return to the highest office in the land, with a staggering 34 convictions under his belt. His campaign rhetoric was, as always, polarizing and often crossed the line of decency. 

Politics has clearly changed since there was a time when even a fraction of Trump's controversies would have ended a political career. Yet here we are. Some Canadians celebrated his victory, but it perplexes me why anyone north of the border would since he has demonstrated little regard for Canada, dismissing us as an afterthought despite our deep economic ties.

The truth is America’s prosperity is intrinsically linked to our resources and partnership.

Canada: An Indispensable Ally

Consider this: 60% of the crude oil the U.S. consumes comes from Canada. Saskatchewan supplies uranium, which is essential for energy production and national security, and potash essential for the agriculture industry. Quebec powers the northeastern United States with hydroelectricity. Alberta’s natural gas and Canada’s aluminum and steel exports are cornerstones of U.S. infrastructure.

But what would happen if we turned off the taps? A trade war would hurt us both, but Canada’s contribution to the U.S. economy is undeniable. Trump’s focus should be on challenges like China and Russia, not antagonizing U.S. allies.

Revisiting NAFTA and Trade Tactics

However, his threats are nothing new since we’ve seen this playbook before. In 2016, Trump declared NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) dead, demanding a "fair deal." After much posturing, the agreement was merely updated—something long overdue. Trump called it a victory, and his supporters cheered him on, but the changes were only modest at best.

Similarly, his famous promise to build a wall funded by Mexico resulted in just 732 km of construction—most of which replaced existing barriers. Mexico, of course, didn’t pay a dime and some of the "new" wall even deteriorated quickly, bogged down by allegations of corruption among Trump’s staff.

The Reality of Trump’s First Term

Let’s be honest—Trump’s first term was marked by unfulfilled promises and many controversies. His pandemic response was completely disastrous, with state governors openly criticizing his lack of leadership. Who could forget his infamous suggestion to inject bleach as a COVID-19 treatment? Why would a person even suggest that? Trump signed agreements that drove up gas prices, contributing to inflation.

Running a country is vastly different from running a private business, and Trump’s approach often revealed his lack of governance expertise.

What’s Next?

His 25% tariff plan threat on Canadian goods are likely bluster—an opening gambit to pressure Canada and Mexico into renegotiating trade agreements. It really is a strategy very reminiscent of his NAFTA theatrics.

In the end, we’ll likely see a slightly revised deal that Trump will tout as another one of his "wins." Of course, his base will applaud, despite little substantial change.

Canada’s Challenge

For Canadians, Trump’s presidency is very concerning since his leadership style— always chaotic and self-serving—offers no real benefit to Canada. Therefore, we must brace ourselves for uncertainty and prepare to protect our interests.

Meanwhile, south of the border, Americans will face the consequences of his polarizing and often ineffective leadership.

In the end, Trump’s bravado may have won temporary support from his base, but we must remember it’s critical to separate rhetoric from results. As the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for—you just might get it.”

The pain at the pumps consumers continue to feel as prices climb above $2 a litre won’t be dissipating anytime soon, warns Dan McTeague, President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

“The problem is a shortage of oil,” says the former Liberal MP and long-time energy ‘watchdog’.

He says Russian President Vladimir Putin knows the world is vulnerable right now and has made it geopolitical and weaponized oil supplies in Europe through the invasion of the Ukraine, which has only magnified the issues already facing the other two major energy links in the world – namely Canada and the U.S. and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).

“We’ve completely destroyed the Canada/U.S. relationship,” says Dan, referring to the political decision to ‘kill’ proposed pipelines in North America and notes that OPEC, which cut oil production to keep prices at a certain level, is looking towards Asia and markets of the future.

As well, factor in a slowdown of world economies during the two years of the pandemic which resulted in a decrease in the demand for oil, resulting in oil companies putting a stop on drilling for new supplies or slowed, or even stopped, some refineries. Now, these same companies continue to have a tough time ramping up production to keep pace with demand.

It’s a dire situation, which Dan says he discussed in the fall of 2021 in an interview with Driving.ca, long before Russia launched its Ukrainian invasion. In the article, one of the things he points to is the introduction of the Trudeau government’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) which he bluntly referred to as ‘another tax dressed up as a clean-air credit’ that is going to cost average Canadians even more at the pumps. The CFS is set to be introduced Dec. 1 of 2022.

Taxes, of course, remain one of the largest components of fuel prices in Canada accounting for at least 34% of the average pump price.

Breakdown of gas taxes in Ontario:

• Federal excise tax - 10 cents/ per litre
• Federal carbon tax - 11.1 cents/ per litre
• Ontario tax - 14.7 cents/ per litre
• GST/HST - 22.9 cents/ per litre.

This translates into a total amount of 58.6 cents/per litre worth of taxes in Ontario, on top of the base price of which near the end of May was 139.6 cents/ per litre. On average, this is in line with many provinces, except for Alberta which is 29 cents/per litre and Manitoba at 43.8 cents/per litre. Overall, Canadians are paying an average of 51.2 cents/per litre of taxes.

But is there a solution? Ideally, supply and demand would have to become more balanced which could be accomplished in several ways:

• The war in Ukraine ends and countries begin buying Russian oil again;
• OPEC ramps up oil production;
• Other oil producers increase production;
• People start driving less;
• Society as a whole embraces greener energy solutions that don’t involve oil.

Dan believes the world is still a few decades away from turning fully away from oil and natural gas.

“We’ve got to get real about building pipelines again,” he says, adding we need to be more realistic when it comes to our current energy needs.

He says as it stands, there is not much business operators can do as they continue to deal with disrupted supply chains and expenses, especially around transportation costs.

“I think food costs are the next shoe to drop because of course fuel affordability is gone, and with it now comes everything else,” says Dan.

Lots of controversy over pipelines to carry oil these days. Is it safe, if we don't do pipe, what will happen? Are there better alternatives? You decide.