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The following column by Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher appears in the winter edition of our INSIGHT Magazine

There’s a chance we might be panicking over nothing after Donald Trump was again elected this past fall as President of the United States, defying political norms in a way few others have.

Despite being a convicted felon—yes, by a jury of his peers, not a partisan judge—Trump secured his return to the highest office in the land, with a staggering 34 convictions under his belt. His campaign rhetoric was, as always, polarizing and often crossed the line of decency. 

Politics has clearly changed since there was a time when even a fraction of Trump's controversies would have ended a political career. Yet here we are. Some Canadians celebrated his victory, but it perplexes me why anyone north of the border would since he has demonstrated little regard for Canada, dismissing us as an afterthought despite our deep economic ties.

The truth is America’s prosperity is intrinsically linked to our resources and partnership.

Canada: An Indispensable Ally

Consider this: 60% of the crude oil the U.S. consumes comes from Canada. Saskatchewan supplies uranium, which is essential for energy production and national security, and potash essential for the agriculture industry. Quebec powers the northeastern United States with hydroelectricity. Alberta’s natural gas and Canada’s aluminum and steel exports are cornerstones of U.S. infrastructure.

But what would happen if we turned off the taps? A trade war would hurt us both, but Canada’s contribution to the U.S. economy is undeniable. Trump’s focus should be on challenges like China and Russia, not antagonizing U.S. allies.

Revisiting NAFTA and Trade Tactics

However, his threats are nothing new since we’ve seen this playbook before. In 2016, Trump declared NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) dead, demanding a "fair deal." After much posturing, the agreement was merely updated—something long overdue. Trump called it a victory, and his supporters cheered him on, but the changes were only modest at best.

Similarly, his famous promise to build a wall funded by Mexico resulted in just 732 km of construction—most of which replaced existing barriers. Mexico, of course, didn’t pay a dime and some of the "new" wall even deteriorated quickly, bogged down by allegations of corruption among Trump’s staff.

The Reality of Trump’s First Term

Let’s be honest—Trump’s first term was marked by unfulfilled promises and many controversies. His pandemic response was completely disastrous, with state governors openly criticizing his lack of leadership. Who could forget his infamous suggestion to inject bleach as a COVID-19 treatment? Why would a person even suggest that? Trump signed agreements that drove up gas prices, contributing to inflation.

Running a country is vastly different from running a private business, and Trump’s approach often revealed his lack of governance expertise.

What’s Next?

His 25% tariff plan threat on Canadian goods are likely bluster—an opening gambit to pressure Canada and Mexico into renegotiating trade agreements. It really is a strategy very reminiscent of his NAFTA theatrics.

In the end, we’ll likely see a slightly revised deal that Trump will tout as another one of his "wins." Of course, his base will applaud, despite little substantial change.

Canada’s Challenge

For Canadians, Trump’s presidency is very concerning since his leadership style— always chaotic and self-serving—offers no real benefit to Canada. Therefore, we must brace ourselves for uncertainty and prepare to protect our interests.

Meanwhile, south of the border, Americans will face the consequences of his polarizing and often ineffective leadership.

In the end, Trump’s bravado may have won temporary support from his base, but we must remember it’s critical to separate rhetoric from results. As the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for—you just might get it.”

The following piece is one of several that appears in the special summer edition of  our INSIGHT Magazine celebrating Cambridge’s 50th anniversary as we recognize just a few of the people, businesses and institutions that have made our community great.

Building was something Gord Renwick did very well.

While running his family-owned business Renwick Construction, which he took over in 1963 after his father, Don, suddenly died, the company was involved in the construction of many homes and industrial buildings in and around the newly amalgamated and growing city of Cambridge.

The knack he had for running a successful business was only magnified when he became an influencer in the sports world after becoming heavily involved in the international administration of hockey.

Although he was a big baseball fan, Renwick developed a passion for hockey and is recognized as one of the original ‘builders’ of the powerful Galt Hornets senior hockey organization – often described as the best outfit in senior hockey circles – where he served as president for nearly a decade.

Renwick gained accolades and respect in the Canadian hockey world when the Hornets won the Allan Cup in 1969 and again in 1971, which led to greater involvement in our national pastime, and he went on to become president of the Canadian Amateur Hockey Association (CAHA) from 1979 to 1981.

“He brought more of a corporate model of governance, rather than just a kitchen table operation,” Murray Costello, the first president of the CAHA, was quoted saying in the Waterloo Record following Renwick’s death at 85 in 2021.

Later, Renwick became the Vice-President of the International Ice Hockey Federation (IIHF) in 1984 and would go on to diligently serve the organization for 20 years. He is credited with helping to transform that organization from using a ‘kitchen table’ approach to bookkeeping to a computerized operation.

Throughout his lengthy career in hockey, he played a key role in several high-profile initiatives, including the Royal Bank Wrigley International Tournament and the Wrigley Midget Tournament, and served as Chef de Mission for all visiting Russian team tours of Canada.

Renwick was also instrumental in getting international sponsors for the Canada Cup and World Cup tournaments and through his work with the IIHF travelled extensively worldwide for the organization, even handing out medals at the 1992 Winter Olympics in France.

He also spearheaded negotiations for the NHL to join the Olympic Games in Japan which finally occurred in 1998.

“I probably get a lot more credit than I deserve,” Renwick was once quoted as saying. “What stimulates me to do it is the love of the game and the success of marketing.”

Not surprisingly, Renwick was bestowed with many prestigious awards including being inducted three times into the Cambridge Sports Hall of Fame – which he helped get off the ground in the mid-1990s - and the Order of Hockey in Canada in 2012.

He was also made a lifetime member of Hockey Canada and is the namesake of the Renwick Cup which is awarded annually to the AAA senior ice hockey champion.

As well, the Cambridge Memorial Hospital Foundation unveiled in 2019 the Renwick family bridge, which connects the original hospital building to its refurbished Wing A.

When he wasn’t working hard building homes and businesses, or building connections in the hockey world, Renwick could often be found enjoying life with members of his large family and many friends at his Muskoka cottage on Lake Rosseau.

The pain at the pumps consumers continue to feel as prices climb above $2 a litre won’t be dissipating anytime soon, warns Dan McTeague, President of Canadians for Affordable Energy.

“The problem is a shortage of oil,” says the former Liberal MP and long-time energy ‘watchdog’.

He says Russian President Vladimir Putin knows the world is vulnerable right now and has made it geopolitical and weaponized oil supplies in Europe through the invasion of the Ukraine, which has only magnified the issues already facing the other two major energy links in the world – namely Canada and the U.S. and OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries).

“We’ve completely destroyed the Canada/U.S. relationship,” says Dan, referring to the political decision to ‘kill’ proposed pipelines in North America and notes that OPEC, which cut oil production to keep prices at a certain level, is looking towards Asia and markets of the future.

As well, factor in a slowdown of world economies during the two years of the pandemic which resulted in a decrease in the demand for oil, resulting in oil companies putting a stop on drilling for new supplies or slowed, or even stopped, some refineries. Now, these same companies continue to have a tough time ramping up production to keep pace with demand.

It’s a dire situation, which Dan says he discussed in the fall of 2021 in an interview with Driving.ca, long before Russia launched its Ukrainian invasion. In the article, one of the things he points to is the introduction of the Trudeau government’s Clean Fuel Standard (CFS) which he bluntly referred to as ‘another tax dressed up as a clean-air credit’ that is going to cost average Canadians even more at the pumps. The CFS is set to be introduced Dec. 1 of 2022.

Taxes, of course, remain one of the largest components of fuel prices in Canada accounting for at least 34% of the average pump price.

Breakdown of gas taxes in Ontario:

• Federal excise tax - 10 cents/ per litre
• Federal carbon tax - 11.1 cents/ per litre
• Ontario tax - 14.7 cents/ per litre
• GST/HST - 22.9 cents/ per litre.

This translates into a total amount of 58.6 cents/per litre worth of taxes in Ontario, on top of the base price of which near the end of May was 139.6 cents/ per litre. On average, this is in line with many provinces, except for Alberta which is 29 cents/per litre and Manitoba at 43.8 cents/per litre. Overall, Canadians are paying an average of 51.2 cents/per litre of taxes.

But is there a solution? Ideally, supply and demand would have to become more balanced which could be accomplished in several ways:

• The war in Ukraine ends and countries begin buying Russian oil again;
• OPEC ramps up oil production;
• Other oil producers increase production;
• People start driving less;
• Society as a whole embraces greener energy solutions that don’t involve oil.

Dan believes the world is still a few decades away from turning fully away from oil and natural gas.

“We’ve got to get real about building pipelines again,” he says, adding we need to be more realistic when it comes to our current energy needs.

He says as it stands, there is not much business operators can do as they continue to deal with disrupted supply chains and expenses, especially around transportation costs.

“I think food costs are the next shoe to drop because of course fuel affordability is gone, and with it now comes everything else,” says Dan.

Poor Europe! She suffered years of economic stagnation and austerity. Costly government bailouts and a drawn-out banking crisis sapped her confidence. Terrorism and an unprecedented surge of migrants poisoned political debate and encouraged extremists. The final insult came when the British voted to leave her.

By the end of 2016, popular wisdom was that Europe’s politics were so shattered and her people so fed up, that upcoming elections would see right-wing extremists swept to power from France to the Netherlands, Austria and Italy. Even the gentle Scandinavians were eager to elect loons!

Except that didn’t happen. The elections came and went. The Austrians and the Dutch elected moderates by healthy margins. The Trudeau-like French centrist Mr. Macron won the French presidency by a staggering 30%, in a victory so crushing that his opponent Mme. Le Pen announced her intention to change the name of her political party. Far from a wave of Trumps, Europe is governed by sensible moderates (with the exception of Orban in Hungary).

And recently Europe’s economy has gone from strength to strength. All 28 members of the EU saw growth last year, and this will continue through 2017 and 2018.

In the first quarter of 2017, the European Union’s economy grew at a healthy 1.9%, more than double the U.S. quarterly growth of 0.7%. European business confidence is near an all-time high for manufacturers and services. More importantly, business is spending – European investment will grow by 3% this year and 3.5% next year. And best of all: European consumers are a happy bunch with low debt levels and money to burn. Last week, consumer confidence hit the highest level since June 2007. Happy days are here again!

Canadian businesses see the opportunities. Hudson’s Bay will invest $570 million in Europe this year and are targeting sales growth of 20%. The CEO Jerry Storch says profits will grow even faster than sales.

So far in 2017, some of Canada’s fastest growing export markets can be found in Europe. Exports to Germany are up 9%, sales to France are up 14% and the Netherlands are up 10%. And Canada’s investments in Europe are even larger. The total sales by Canadianowned companies operating in Europe exceeds $100 billion. That’s more than triple the value of Canada’s direct exports to the region.

Investors have noticed that Europe has her confidence back, and she’s even got a bit of swagger. When Mr. Trump promoted Brexit to other EU countries, the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker said “I’m going to promote the independence of Ohio and Texas.” Europe has also started flexing her muscles and is about to embark on a new defence spending spree.

And thanks to far-sighted trade ministers, Ed Fast and Chrystia Freeland, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) will come into force soon. We’ve all been so focused on the NAFTA renegotiation and those fabulous 3 a.m. tweets. Let’s not lose sight of a spectacular opportunity for Canadian business. With 500 million people and GDP of $18.5 trillion, the EU is the world’s largest economy, so a return to stability and growth will have a stimulating effect on the whole global economy. Welcome back Europe!

For more information, please contact :

Hendrik Brakel Senior Director, Economic, Financial & Tax Policy

613.238.4000 (284) | [email protected]