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The high cost of living, inflation, housing affordability, and rising operational costs top the lists of concerns for Ontario businesses, according to the Ontario Chamber of Commerce’s (OCC) most recent Ontario Economic Report (OER). 

The report shows a significant rise in business confidence over the course of 2024, climbing from a historic low of 13% to 26% by year’s end. Despite this improvement, confidence remains historically low and fragile, with 48% of businesses expressing a lack of confidence in the economy. Affordability and the cost of living continue to be the most pressing concerns for businesses.

The survey, conducted between October 15 and December 2, 2024, gathered insights from 1,714 respondents representing a diverse range of industries, regions, and organizations.

The results show that when U.S. tariff threats are on the table, business confidence drops dramatically to just 15%, almost erasing the last year’s gains, according to the OCC’s separate tariff survey in early February. This recent research also shows that with tariffs in play, six in ten (60%) business decision makers would lack confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook.

“I may not use the word fragile describing the confidence level and instead use the word tempered,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher. “People's optimism for the future of business in the short term is tempered by the impact of Trump’s tariffs. I think most people in business realize that the impact of any decision is probably going to be short term. Whether or not tariffs are long term isn't the issue, it’s the impact of tariffs. So, after a period time, the marketplace settles down and people get used to whatever is the new reality.”

Ontario’s economic outlook varies

Confidence in Ontario’s economic outlook varies significantly across industries, with the information and cultural industries sector reporting the lowest level of optimism at just 17%.  Businesses in this sector cite high operational costs, shifting consumer behaviour, declining advertising revenues, and mounting pressures from technological disruption, global competition, and regulatory challenges as key drivers of their pessimism.

The retail (18%), non-profit (20%), utilities (21%), and accommodation and food services (22%) sectors follow closely, reflecting the impact of declining consumer spending amid heightened cost-of-living pressures.

The agriculture sector, while showing a slight improvement over last year, also remains among the least confident sectors (22%). Concerns in this sector centre on extreme weather events, trade and supply chain barriers, and growing labour gaps and succession planning challenges as a significant portion of the workforce approaches retirement.

By contrast, confidence is strongest in the mining (56%), finance and insurance (40%), and administrative and waste management services (40%) sectors. This could be explained by the strong demand for critical minerals supported by Ontario’s Critical Minerals Strategy, rising sustainability initiatives the finance sector’s ongoing resilience, and growth driven by fintech advancements. These sectors demonstrate adaptability and the ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities.

Survey respondents remain optimistic

Regionally, most of Ontario’s regions outside the GTA saw a significant reduction in confidence compared to the previous year.

Confidence is lowest in Stratford-Bruce Peninsula (19%), Northeast Ontario (21%), and the Greater Ottawa Area (21%), where in addition to concerns surrounding high costs and housing affordability, businesses are disproportionately sensitive to government policies and investments and have suffered more extreme weather events than other regions.

Confidence is highest in the Greater London Area (34%), a significant rebound from last year (9%). This resurgence is likely fueled by strong consumer demand, and domestic manufacturing capacity and supply chains, including the announcement of the Volkswagen EV battery plant in St. Thomas.

Despite the challenges, respondents report relative optimism about their own business growth prospects. Nearly half (49%) express confidence in their own future, citing factors such as strong consumer demand, innovation, and improved inflation management, something that doesn’t surprise Greg.

“I think that you'll find that there's going to be a growth and optimism because many sectors in Canada are going to strengthen as a result,” he says. “We’ve never been the ‘buy Canadian’ kind of a nation and the U.S. has always had buy American programs in place because we’ve always understood we were a player in the global market.”

He says there are initiatives created by the Provincial and Federal governments to encourage Canadian businesses to look at other, more reliable markets, rather than depending on the American market.

European Union agreement key

“Why we perceive the U.S. market to be unreliable right now is because anything that the American government does that impacts the trade with their nation is exponential in our case because 80 per cent of our GDP goes to the United States,” says Greg. “So, we're vulnerable to every whim of the U.S. government. For us to get more reliable sources, we need to diversify so we need to have relationships in the European Union.”

He notes the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, which Canada signed in the fall of 2016, has been underutilized. 

“I think it stands to reason that we have not served ourselves well by not really looking seriously at the European Union for economic trade,” says Greg, noting this happened primarily because of our expectation the U.S. would always remain a reliable trading partner.

“We need to understand what the reality of this is going to be going forward and whether we do get aggressive when it comes to find other trading partners.  And if Canadians continue to buy Canadian that will really impact the U.S. exponentially because we do consume a lot of American products.”

Click here to read the report.

Report highlights: 

• Business confidence in Ontario’s economy has doubled in the past year, rising from 13% to 26%, but a majority of respondents (48%) lack confidence in the economy. 
• High costs remain the top concern for businesses, with 78% citing the cost of living, followed by inflation (62%), housing affordability (57%), and rising operational costs (51%).
• Simplifying or reducing business taxes (42%) is the most frequently cited policy solution to improve economic conditions, followed by affordable housing (32%), health system capacity (30%) and workforce development to solve labour shortages (29%).
• While businesses recognize the economic importance of technology adoption, environmental sustainability, diversity and inclusion and Indigenous reconciliation, businesses report a need for support and guidance in seizing these opportunities.
• Businesses report being ill-equipped to support workers and communities through mental health and addictions challenges. For example, while 71% of businesses recognize the importance of mental health and well-being to their success, only 41% have formal mental health strategies.
• Business leaders are confident in their ability to adapt to ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada with nearly half (48%) reporting confidence, while 32% are neutral and only 15% expressing a lack of confidence. 
• Ontario’s post-pandemic recovery faces significant headwinds, including potential U.S. tariff threats, geopolitical instability, lagging productivity, affordability challenges, and rising unemployment.

The following column by Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher appears in the winter edition of our INSIGHT Magazine

There’s a chance we might be panicking over nothing after Donald Trump was again elected this past fall as President of the United States, defying political norms in a way few others have.

Despite being a convicted felon—yes, by a jury of his peers, not a partisan judge—Trump secured his return to the highest office in the land, with a staggering 34 convictions under his belt. His campaign rhetoric was, as always, polarizing and often crossed the line of decency. 

Politics has clearly changed since there was a time when even a fraction of Trump's controversies would have ended a political career. Yet here we are. Some Canadians celebrated his victory, but it perplexes me why anyone north of the border would since he has demonstrated little regard for Canada, dismissing us as an afterthought despite our deep economic ties.

The truth is America’s prosperity is intrinsically linked to our resources and partnership.

Canada: An Indispensable Ally

Consider this: 60% of the crude oil the U.S. consumes comes from Canada. Saskatchewan supplies uranium, which is essential for energy production and national security, and potash essential for the agriculture industry. Quebec powers the northeastern United States with hydroelectricity. Alberta’s natural gas and Canada’s aluminum and steel exports are cornerstones of U.S. infrastructure.

But what would happen if we turned off the taps? A trade war would hurt us both, but Canada’s contribution to the U.S. economy is undeniable. Trump’s focus should be on challenges like China and Russia, not antagonizing U.S. allies.

Revisiting NAFTA and Trade Tactics

However, his threats are nothing new since we’ve seen this playbook before. In 2016, Trump declared NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) dead, demanding a "fair deal." After much posturing, the agreement was merely updated—something long overdue. Trump called it a victory, and his supporters cheered him on, but the changes were only modest at best.

Similarly, his famous promise to build a wall funded by Mexico resulted in just 732 km of construction—most of which replaced existing barriers. Mexico, of course, didn’t pay a dime and some of the "new" wall even deteriorated quickly, bogged down by allegations of corruption among Trump’s staff.

The Reality of Trump’s First Term

Let’s be honest—Trump’s first term was marked by unfulfilled promises and many controversies. His pandemic response was completely disastrous, with state governors openly criticizing his lack of leadership. Who could forget his infamous suggestion to inject bleach as a COVID-19 treatment? Why would a person even suggest that? Trump signed agreements that drove up gas prices, contributing to inflation.

Running a country is vastly different from running a private business, and Trump’s approach often revealed his lack of governance expertise.

What’s Next?

His 25% tariff plan threat on Canadian goods are likely bluster—an opening gambit to pressure Canada and Mexico into renegotiating trade agreements. It really is a strategy very reminiscent of his NAFTA theatrics.

In the end, we’ll likely see a slightly revised deal that Trump will tout as another one of his "wins." Of course, his base will applaud, despite little substantial change.

Canada’s Challenge

For Canadians, Trump’s presidency is very concerning since his leadership style— always chaotic and self-serving—offers no real benefit to Canada. Therefore, we must brace ourselves for uncertainty and prepare to protect our interests.

Meanwhile, south of the border, Americans will face the consequences of his polarizing and often ineffective leadership.

In the end, Trump’s bravado may have won temporary support from his base, but we must remember it’s critical to separate rhetoric from results. As the old saying goes, “Be careful what you wish for—you just might get it.”

Small businesses are at the heart of our communities. They create good jobs, grow our economies and bring life to our main streets. But they have also been among the hardest hit during the COVID-19 pandemic.

As we continue to fight this virus, small businesses face further losses, increased costs to reopening and an uncertain economic future. The Government of Canada is committed to doing whatever it takes to support small businesses and their communities. Their success is critical as we recover and rebuild from the COVID-19 pandemic.

On Tuesday, during Small Business Week, the Honourable Mary Ng, Minister of Small Business, Export Promotion and International Trade, announced an investment of $12 million in the Canada United Small Business Relief Fund.

“The support announced today is yet another lifeline for resilient small businesses across Canada. These grants will help them cover expenses involved in reopening and allow them to build a stronger digital presence,” said Ng.  “As we’ve said from the very beginning of this pandemic, we will always be there for small businesses and the millions of hard-working Canadians they employ.”

Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Greg Durocher welcomed the news. “There has never been a more important time to support local small business than right now. They are critically important to our own local economy.”

Canada United is a national fundraising campaign created by the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) in collaboration with private sector partners and provincial and territorial chambers of commerce, including the Ontario Chamber of Commerce (OCC). The campaign has been rallying support from Canadians for local small businesses in every corner of the country.

The Canada United Small Business Relief Fund, which is managed by the OCC, is supporting Canadian businesses across different sectors and industries with grants of up to $5,000. These grants will help thousands of small business owners cover the costs of personal protective equipment, make physical modifications to their businesses to meet local health and safety requirements, and enhance their digital or e-commerce capabilities. This is especially important as we enter the second wave of the pandemic.

This investment builds on the federal government’s continued support for small and local businesses through a wide range of COVID-19 emergency programs, such as the expanded Canada Emergency Business Account, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy and the new Canada Emergency Rent Subsidy.

At A Glance:

• Starting on October 26, small businesses can apply online through the Ontario Chamber of Commerce for the next wave of Canada United Small Business Relief Fund grants.
• Applications are open to small businesses across sectors and industries in every part of the country that have between $150,000 and $3 million in annual sales; have up to 75 employees; are registered in Canada; and would use the grant to cover the costs of personal protective equipment, make physical modifications to their businesses to meet local health and safety requirements, and enhance their digital or e-commerce capabilities.

More than 60 per cent of Canada’s restaurants risk having to close their doors permanently by November, according to government data.

The Canadian Survey on Business Conditions (CSBC), produced by Statistics Canada with support from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, found that 29% of accommodation and food service businesses cannot operate at all with social distancing measures in effect. A further 31% will only be able to remain operational for up to 90 days with distancing measures in effect. In other words, up to 60% of the industry could fail within three months.

These figures are even more troubling when you consider the jobs already lost. When COVID hit, 83% of businesses in the accommodation and food services industries temporarily closed and two-thirds were forced to lay off some staff, including almost a quarter that were forced to lay off all their staff.  According to Restaurants Canada, the food service industry lost 800,000 jobs.

While the economy is now slowly beginning to recover, to date the federal government has not offered help tailored to the needs of the hardest hit industries like food services, which will take a long time to recover. That’s why, with the support of the Cambridge Chamber of Commerce, the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and 15 food service businesses, representing more than 60 brands, has launched the ‘Our Restaurants’ campaign.

“Local restaurants are vital to our economy and play an integral role in making Cambridge such a great community,” said Cambridge Chamber President and CEO Greg Durocher. “They need our support now more than ever.”

Canadian Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Hon. Perrin Beatty agrees.

“We need to act now. Across Canada, our restaurants are where we meet for business or pleasure, where we got our first job and where our families spend a night out. Simply put, our restaurants are cornerstones in our communities,” he said. “The ‘Our Restaurants’ campaign underscores the urgent need for Canadians – both the public and our governments – to come together to support these businesses in their time of need.”

The campaign puts a spotlight on the current situation faced by Canada’s restaurants amidst COVID-19: high costs, fewer customers, and government programs ill-equipped for the unique, long-term challenges faced by the industry.

Our Restaurants is a campaign led by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce and supported by:

• Arterra Wines Canada
• Benny & Co.
• Boston Pizza
• CWB Franchise Finance
• Firkin Group of Pubs
• Foodtastic
• Gordon Food Service
• Molson Coors Beverage Company
• Northland Restaurant Group
• Paramount Fine Foods
• Pizza Pizza
• Restaurants Canada
• Service Inspired Restaurants (SIR Corp)
• St. Louis Bar and Grill Restaurants
• Sysco Canada

Together these companies represent more than 60 of the best-known restaurant brands across Canada and the whole of the food services industry.

“We can all make a difference. Canadians need to observe safety measures while also starting to resume our normal lives, including being able to go out for a meal. Everyone also needs to remind their elected representatives of the importance of our restaurants in our lives,” concluded Beatty.

The campaign is national, bilingual, includes paid advertising, and the launch of the website OurRestaurants.ca.

The Cambridge Chamber has joined Canada United, a national movement to support local businesses in communities across the country.

As part of the movement, RBC has brought together more than 50 of Canada’s leading brands, Business Associations and the national Chamber network to rally Canadians to “show local some love” by buying, dining and shopping local.

“The Cambridge Chamber is pleased to support the Canada United movement and help bolster businesses in and around our community. Small businesses are the backbones of our local economies and key to thriving communities,” says Cambridge Chamber of Commerce President & CEO Greg Durocher. “The COVID-19 pandemic has created unprecedented challenges for businesses in our region and across the province. We need to continue to support SMEs who create jobs, drive innovation, and generate wealth for communities across Ontario – they will play an integral role in helping the province bounce back.”

Canadians are invited to join the Canada United movement by buying and dining local, including celebrating and supporting local businesses during the Canada United Weekend from August 28 to 30.

Canadians are also encouraged to watch the Canada United videos online at GoCanadaUnited.ca, like posts from @GoCanadaUnited on social media and use #CanadaUnited to demonstrate their support. For each of these actions until August 31, 2020, RBC will contribute 5 cents up to a maximum contribution amount of $2 million to the new Canada United Small Business Relief Fund, while working with government and corporate partners to source additional contributions to the fund during the course of the campaign. This fund will provide small businesses with grants of up to $5,000 to cover expenses related to personal protective equipment (PPE) renovations to accommodate re-opening guidelines and developing or improving e-commerce capabilities.

Small Canadian businesses across the country will be able to apply for up to $5,000 in grant funding. The program intends to support small Canadian businesses of all kinds from across the country. The Canada United Small Business Relief Fund will be administered by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce on behalf of the national Chamber network. Small business owners who are interested in the program can visit GoCanadaUnited.ca to learn more about grant application details, including eligibility criteria, and to apply.

“We are excited to welcome the Cambridge Chamber to Canada United to help local businesses and Canada’s economy come back strong,” said Neil McLaughlin, Group Head, Personal & Commercial Banking, Royal Bank of Canada. “Canada United was created to kick-start an economic rebound by rallying consumers to give local businesses the support they need to re-open during these uncertain times. By bringing together government, business associations and corporate Canada, we are looking to start a movement to get Canadians to buy local and support businesses across the country. We are genuinely excited by the energy all of our partners are bringing to this effort.”

“If there has been one silver lining in all the tragedy and sacrifices of the current crisis, it has been the spirit of collaboration and unity of purpose that has been evident between levels of government, across provinces and across sectors,” said Rocco Rossi, President and CEO, Ontario Chamber of Commerce.

“We are calling on that same unity of purpose with Canada United. Small, local businesses are the heart of our communities, our Main Streets and our economy. Together, it is time to show local some love.”